the Delhi Assembly elections have led to news outlets speculating that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which wrested power
from the Aam Admi Party might gain into strength to secure the same on its own in Bihar due for polls in October/November this year
In the event of the fall of Nitish, the BJP might be up
against a stronger Tejaswhi Yadav and his RJD in Bihar.
The results of the Delhi Assembly elections have led to news
outlets speculating that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which wrested power
from the Aam Admi Party might gain into strength to secure the same on its own
in Bihar due for polls in October/November this year.
It’s an unrealistic speculation. Bihar and Delhi are stories
in contrast, and given the ground realities and socio-political behaviour of
the electorate in the two states, it’s downright naïve to draw a parallel
between them. The Delhi results will have little impact in Bihar.
Kejriwal’s rise and fall
Arvind Kejriwal, a firebrand right to information activist
then, rising on the crest of the Anna Hazare led movement against systemic
corruption and constitution of Lok Pal, gained phenomenal popularity among the
aam aadmi [common people].
To be fair to him, he offered an alternative politics in
true sense, picking his candidates from the lot of an apolitical class of slum
dwellers, street vendors, auto drivers, daily wagers, cart pullers and migrant
workers.
In the process, he empowered the class of people insulted,
exploited and harassed by the powers that be. He offered dignity to the
“unauthorised settlers” who were being treated with contempt by the police and
administration.
The “enforcers of the law”, caned them and ransacked their
make-shift houses on the daily basis without recognising that they sweated it
out to build the skyscrapers, posh localities, roads, bridges and highways that
are the hallmark of the national capital.
The coughing and muffler wearing Kejriwal emerged as a metaphor
of the common man whereas his aam-aadmi embossed cap wearing and broom-holding
volunteers perfectly jelled with the construction workers, vendors and
cart-pullers toiling it out on the streets.
In 2013, he dethroned the Congress’s three-time chief minister,
Sheila Dikshit but AAP’s victory was not adequate to let him have his sway in
Delhi. His real victory came in 2015 when his party bagged 67 seats, smashing
the BJP which was a rising force under the stewardship of Narendra Modi in the
rest of the country at that time.
A strong of section of lower middle-class and women in
general in Delhi, too, got attracted to Kejriwal’s politics because of his
landmark initiatives like opening mohalla clinics and improving the government
schools.
But, simultaneous with his stupendous victory also came in
the “vices” afflicting his party. Kejriwal, systematically disowned the ways
that had made him the “hero” of the aam aadmi. The number of AAP MLAs went down
from 67 to 62 in 2020, reflecting the weaknesses setting in, in his operations.
Still it was big enough to invisibilise his shortcomings. What could have
cushioned Kejrwal was an inclusive political ideology in the face of the BJP’s
multi-pronged attack on him. But, be by his design or his naiveté, Kejriwal, discarded
Yogendra Yadav and several other leaders who were capable to define and shape
the party’s ideology against the neo-BJP’s radical Hindutva powered by the
corporate houses and the upper bureaucracy in Indian executive and judicial
system.
Bereft of ideology, he emulated the BJP with regard to the
issue of reservation for the marginalised classes, communalism and Kashmir. He
tried to present himself as a more radical Hindutva protagonist than the Sangh
Parivar, ignoring the mayhem on the minorities being carried out relentlessly
by the Hindutva zealots.
He joined the BJP in attacking the Tablighi Jamaat for
spreading corona and kept away from the harangued minorities at Shaheen Bagh.
It will be unfair to say that he has turned corrupt simply
on the basis of the central investigating agencies implicating him and his
party leaders in corruption cases, for it’s an open secret that the BJP has
unabashedly been using these agencies against its political opponents.
But, it’s hard to deny that Kejriwal lost his way which was
evident in preferring the “Sheesh Mahal” as his abode, selecting his candidates
for the Rajya Sabha. For the reason best known to him, the coughing and muffler
wearing Kejriwal morphed himself into a confrontationist and over-ambitious
leader, turning his attention away from Delhi and pushing him in several other
states with different realities.
Bihar is a different story
The phenomena of Arvind Kejriwal never excited Bihar. Even
though Delhi has large share of migrant workers from Bihar, Kejriwal, even at
the time of his rise in 2013 onwards, didn’t create an impact in Bihar. His
party fielded candidates in 2015 and 2020 assembly elections, but they went
unnoticed. Unsurprisingly, his fall, too, is largely unnoticed in the context
of the electorate’s thinking and behaviour at the ground level.
Unlike Delhi, Bihar is bereft of the classical middle class.
The people are still steeped in the feudal economic and social structure. Away
from looking for the amenities like schools, clinics, playgrounds, and
healthcare system, the Bihar people are still involved in the battle for
identity and existence, and political say.
In no way, the BJP can extend its advantage of its victory
in Delhi to Bihar. Right from 2005 when the BJP formed its government in alliance
with the socialist Nitish Kumar, the Hindutva outfit has tried all its tricks
to have its unilateral sway in Bihar. It succeeded in other Hindi heartland
states including Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, but it has failed
to do so in Bihar.
It’s primarily because the party has failed to make inroads
among the extremely backward classes [EBCs] which constitute 36% of the state’s
population and Dalits with 15% in the manner it did in other states.
The party has effectively pocketed the caste Hindus support
base from the Congress, but it has failed to create space for among the poor
and marginalised classes, which continue to be with the Rashtriya Janata Dal
(RJD) of Lalu Prasad Yadav and the Janata Dal (United) JD (U) of Nitish Kumar.
The minorities, which the BJP perennially tries to render
insignificant, combine with the backward classes behind the RJD – the main
opposition party in the state – to deprive the BJP for gaining in power in
Bihar.
Vulnerable EBCs & opportunity for Tejashwi
Plagued by his health condition and inability to govern
effectively, Nitish Kumar seems to be on the last leg of his political journey.
His condition has turned the EBCs vulnerable and uneasy. Nitish had carved out
a viable political space for his party giving preferential treatment to the
EBCs in the jobs and local bodies and in the process of taking them away from
the RJD, which prior to his rise, represented all the backward classes.
A section of media – apparently supportive to the BJP – is
trying to create the notion that the Hindutva outfit will be benefitted after
the possible fall of Nitish Kumar. Given the socio-economic reality of Bihar,
the marginalised communities won’t look for the BJP in case of Nitish’s fall.
Rather, they will return to what they still feel as original home that the RJD
had been for 15 long years before Nitish’s rise.
Tejashwi Yadav, a fast learner of the rope politics, is
quite cognisant of it. He has explicitly asked his Yadav caste brethren to be
accommodative and protective to the EBCs and he has been working overtime among
the non-Yadav backward classes to win them back.
Of course, the BJP can make inroads into Nitish Kumar’s
Kurmi caste-men who are involved in the battle of supremacy against the Yadavs,
but it won’t make much difference with the prospects of the BJP in the state.
The BJP operates on the crutches of Nitish in the state.
There is no way, the Hindutva party will gain if the crutch falls. In the event
of the fall of Nitish, the BJP might be up against a stronger Tejaswhi Yadav
and his RJD – by far the party of the largest social base in the state.
Nalin Verma is a senior journalist and author. He teaches
mass communication and creative writing at Jamia Hamdard University, New Delhi.
