Not everyday does one easily become a Chief Minister (CM) of a state, especially if one is not an elected legislator. An element of lottery luck (apart from the usual Leibnizian ‘everything happens for a reason’) therefore pervades the 81-year old octogenarian Dr. Shürhozelie Liezietsu when he was sworn in as the eleventh CM of Nagaland on 22 February, 2017, following T.R. Zeliang’s resignation on 19 February, 2017.
For four years, dramatic political instabilities rocked the front pages of Nagaland—vitiated by rat races internal to NPF family feuds. Yet, political stability still remains a far cry! This time, however, it is a lonely race. By the evening of 22 August, 2017, the six-month free validity period of our present Chief Minister ends. From constitutional perspective, the present CM cannot occupy office beyond the six-months of appointed day under any circumstances. Unless—of course—Dr. Liezietsu decides to top-up a real people’s mandate through a by-election!
On a by-election speculation—as of now—Dr. Liezietsu is at pleasure to contest from any of the sixty legislative seats, should somebody offer to resign. In this direction, 55 Tobu A/C MLA Naiba Konyak has recently tossed a generous sacrificial lifeline, although with heavy hostage-like demands. Will more NPF-MLA loyalists offer their seats, blinded with a better bargain? Or, will Dr. Liezietsu seek mandate from his original 10 Northern Angami (I) constituency, which has returned him eight terms—starting with his initial career as a successful 33-year old freshman in 1969. Or, will his son, the present Hon’ble MLA Khriehu Liezietsu, vacate—just to facilitate the erasure of a black spot for a politically illustrious family—against what history shall remember insofar as the only non-elected CM of Nagaland? Or, alternatively, will the CM majestically pass his top job to a select begotten lieutenant? Speculations are juicy gossips; and it flourishes too with a rightful mixture of expectations and ignorance.
First—the rules of law! Inserted w.e.f. 01 August, 1996, Section 151A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951 (RPA) states that a by-election for filling any vacancy should be held within a period of six months from the date of the occurrence of the vacancy. MLA Naiba’s offer to accommodate for the post of CM held by Dr. Liezietsu is therefore a matter of a ticking clock now—since what is publicly offered now is different from a vacancy that actually does not exist because there has been no resignation. Concomitantly, an Official Gazette announcing a by-election date(s) by the Election Commission of India (ECI) has to also procedurally and technically take place, which cannot be hurriedly completed overnight. Only when ECI announces by-election, holds elections, and declares election results, against a vacated assembly seat, on or before 22 August, 2017—provided our present CM possibly stands and wins the by-election too—can the continuation of CM as the CM be ensured; perhaps till Nagaland goes for its scheduled polls in early 2018. This theoretical possibility is practically unlikely. The magnanimous offer of MLA Naiba is therein either a useless gimmick or lacks conviction. This is a standard Machiavellian politics otherwise called as ‘fishing’.
For, further, under sub-section (a) and (b) of Section 151A, the RPA clearly states that by-elections for a vacated seat need not necessarily be filled if the remainder of the term of a by-election elect is less than a year. In other words, there is very low guarantee that ECI will hold by-elections even if someone foolishly resigns his MLA seat in frantic eagerness to save the CM—since the general Assembly Elections is just round the corner. Also, the ECI, in consultation with the BJP-led Central Government, may have to reserve the right of not holding by-election since the remainder of the term of a Nagaland Legislative Assembly is less than one year. No new laws may be enacted or, for that matter, there may be no aberration of old laws, simply to protect a person for the chair of CM.
Given these quagmire situations, it is highly unlikely that the ECI will be particularly worried that Dr. Liezietsu has nowhere significant to go after he demits the CM’s office by the evening of 22 August, 2017. It is also doubtful that the BJP-led Central Government may make a rare of rarest exception by facilitating a hurried by-election to ensure Dr. Liezietsu continues as CM, entailing a ‘provided he wins’, too, clause. Fortunately or unfortunately, politics is like ‘musical chairs’, especially since there are too many takers and fewer chairs. There is no second prize in electoral politics. There is also no real place for unelected legislators in democracy, unless they choose to fight and win elections. It is against these legal and political compulsions that Dr. Liezietsu may have to unwillingly forgo the privileges of CM he may already be beginning to get comfortable with. Whether he will come back through the front door to relish the short-lived taste of CM-ship is altogether a different issue though.
Second—the possible scenarios! One expected possibility is for the CM to happily hand over his post to one of his colleagues. One should gracefully accept the civil limits of playing politics. This will also enhance chances of stability in the government, especially till the next scheduled general assembly elections. Right now there is no guarantee on who may become the anointed one. As of now, the uncomfortable body language of state politics overtly feeds the social gossip that there are already a couple of MLAs in the tight race. The possibility of reverting the CM-ship to the recently ousted CM is also not impossible, given the camaraderie. Finally, it is again magnanimity in question to see whether Dr. Liezietsu can re-return an offer by counter-offering MLA Naiba the Chief Ministerial job. These are mere lazy scenarios: the craft of politics remains in what is not expected.
Otherwise, should Dr. Liezietsu feels none is worthy to fill his boots—and, rightly, it speaks aloud of the houseful 60-odd legislatorswho, earlier, were all found not fit for the top job—the CM may have no option but to put in his resignation. The present Ministry’s fate then falls solely on the Governor on whether an alternative Ministry can be formed with a new CM. Consequentially, if a viable Ministry cannot be formed, the Governor may dissolve the Assembly in consultation with leaders of political parties and the Chief Election Commissioner. Since this situation may attract early Assembly elections, the Governor may, by convention, accordingly install a caretaker government. In whichever case, the role of our present CM ceases to be since only an elected Member of the Legislative Assembly can head the caretaker government. Or, otherwise, the Governor can recommend President’s Rule under Article 356 without dissolving the Assembly. This scenario is one possibility only when Dr. Liezietsu refuses to hand over the CM-ship to any of his elected colleagues, i.e., either a new Ministry is formed or it necessitates President’s Rule.
A President’s Rule need not necessarily stand to be imposed if our CM does not anoint a successor. Should Dr. Liezietsu decide not to fill a successor, which also requires the support of his Council of Ministers, the other option available is to advise the Governor to dissolve the Legislative Assembly so that fresh elections can be conducted earlier than scheduled. Since this is by the rulebook, the Governor is not under any abnormal duress to recommend President’s Rule. Rather, the Governor is obliged to either head the dissolved government as a case of suspended animation or, as the case usually is, request the outgoing ruling government but now dissolved assembly to be the caretaker government. There are two thin traps here, however. First, just because the CM alongwith his Council of Ministers dissolve the Assembly on expiry of the former’s six-month free ride as CM, it does not mean the present CM is at will to continue as the head caretaker of the dissolved Assembly and government—since only elected legislators are allow to be caretaker/head of a suspended government awaiting early general or snap poll elections. Second, the Governor is at leisure to adjudge a caretaker government with President’s Rule if any political development warrants it so.
It is political suicide for any ruling government to hold general elections under President’s Rule. It is therefore likely that the present NPF-led Government may call for early elections to the Thirteenth Nagaland Legislative Assembly, keeping in mind it has to seek peoples mandate while still controlling the State’s administrative machinery. In this situation, our present CM has no choice but to dissolve the Twelfth Nagaland Legislative Assembly and call for early assembly elections. It may therefore come to a point of whether it will be wise to hold general elections in Nagaland around mid-November 2017, which will critically affect the general population, especially students giving their end-semester exams. Or, whether elections will be held as scheduled by Assembly term, which will totally depend on what eventually becomes of the Chief Ministerial game of throne. A stable government indeed can only inspire public health and resilience—for individual power-hungry politics do affect social psyche and public morale.
