July unfolded differently from initial forecasts of a below-normal season, turning unexpectedly wet and exposing how climate change and shifting ocean–atmosphere interactions are making India’s monsoon harder to predict
NEW DELHI — July unfolded differently from initial forecasts of a below-normal season, turning unexpectedly wet and exposing how climate change and shifting ocean–atmosphere interactions are making India’s monsoon harder to predict, a new study said on Thursday.
Between July 1 and July 26, India received 238.2 mm of rainfall against the normal 233.9 mm, despite the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting below-normal July rainfall at less than 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 280.4 mm, said the research by Climate Trends.
Heavy to extremely heavy rainfall battered several parts of the country, particularly Maharashtra, Gujarat, Assam, Odisha, Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. A nationwide rainfall deficit of 40 per cent as on June 30 reduced to 16 per cent by July 29. Fifteen states recorded normal rainfall, four reported excess to large excess, covering 60 per cent of the country’s area, while 17 states remained deficient, accounting for 36 per cent of the area.
Northwest India and Central India are presently in the normal category, with deficits of 10 per cent and one per cent respectively, according to IMD data. East and Northeast India face a 30 per cent deficiency, while the South Peninsula has a 26 per cent deficit.
Back-to-back monsoon systems kept rainfall active at regular intervals in July. Experts said climate change is amplifying these events. Former IMD Director General K.J. Ramesh noted that warming of the West Pacific offset El Niño’s suppressing potential in July 2026.
He said three cyclonic circulations pushed through Myanmar and re-intensified in the Bay of Bengal, making the monsoon vigorous. Increased western disturbances also brought heavy rains to Maharashtra and Gujarat, while triggering floods in Assam.
Akshay Deoras, Research Scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Britain, said it was surprising how the monsoon is performing in an El Niño year. He pointed out that Umergram in Valsad, Gujarat, recorded 1,064 mm of rainfall in 24 hours last week, the third highest in India since 1901.
He said monsoon behaviour is influenced by internal low-pressure systems and external factors like the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO).
“While IOD and MJO are not in positive phases, the monsoon seems to be driving on its own, and this is where the role of climate change cannot be ruled out,” he added.