Erratic and uneven rainfall may cast a shadow over India’s kharif production this year, as production of oilseeds, pulses and several other essential crops could suffer.
Erratic and uneven rainfall may cast a shadow over India’s kharif production this year. While relatively generous rainfall in July has considerably narrowed the sowing deficit, farmers remain apprehensive about the uneven distribution of rain and pronounced regional disparities. Production of oilseeds, pulses and several other essential crops could suffer if these anomalies persist. Much, however, will depend on the rainfall pattern in August and September. If these two months bring adequate and well-distributed showers, as July did in several parts of the country, agricultural output may remain close to normal. But a prolonged dry spell could inflict serious damage on farm production and rural livelihoods. The concern is particularly acute because crops such as paddy, cotton, groundnut, pulses and soybean have entered moisture-sensitive stages of growth. Even a brief dry spell at this juncture could affect crop health and yields. Excessive rainfall, meanwhile, poses an equally grave danger. Flood-like conditions can submerge standing crops, erode fertile soil and wipe out weeks of agricultural labour. Indian farmers are therefore caught between two extremes: too little rain at the wrong time and too much rain in the wrong place. This annual uncertainty exposes a deeper and more enduring failure—the continuing dependence of Indian agriculture on the monsoon. For decades, the country has discussed the need to free farming from the vagaries of the rain gods, yet meaningful progress in water management has remained inadequate. India does not necessarily suffer from an absolute shortage of water; rather, it suffers from poor management of the water it receives. Every monsoon, enormous quantities of rainwater run off into rivers and seas, while large parts of the country subsequently struggle with drought and depleted groundwater.
A national strategy for capturing, storing and efficiently distributing rainwater is therefore no longer a policy option but an imperative. Expanding reservoirs and decentralised water-storage systems, reviving traditional water bodies, promoting watershed management and strengthening rainwater harvesting can significantly enhance irrigation security. Better storage would not only provide water during dry spells but also reduce the relentless dependence on deep tube wells that has contributed to the alarming depletion of groundwater in several parts of the country. Water conservation must consequently be treated as an integral component of agricultural policy rather than as a stand-alone environmental concern. Climate change makes such an intervention even more urgent. Rising temperatures are altering rainfall patterns, intensifying extreme weather events and making traditional agricultural calendars increasingly unreliable. The challenge, therefore, is not merely to secure more water but to build a farming system capable of withstanding greater climatic volatility. This requires investment in efficient irrigation, drought- and flood-resilient crop varieties, weather-based advisories, better crop insurance and technologies that enable farmers to use every drop of water more productively. The stakes could hardly be higher. Agriculture remains the backbone of rural India and provides livelihoods to a substantial section of the country’s workforce. Any complacency in strengthening the sector would have consequences far beyond the farm. It could affect food prices, rural demand, employment and, ultimately, overall economic stability. The monsoon may remain beyond human control, but the country must ensure that an erratic monsoon does not translate into an agricultural crisis.