The rivalry between the United States and China has emerged as the defining geopolitical issue of the twenty-first century, much like the Cold War period.
The rivalry between the United States and China has emerged as the defining geopolitical issue of the twenty-first century. Much like the Cold War between the United States and the former Soviet Union shaped the second half of the twentieth century, the evolving relationship between Washington and Beijing is likely to determine the future of international politics, global economic stability, technological progress, and peace.
The Cold War began in 1945, immediately after the end of the Second World War, and continued until the dissolution of the Soviet Union on 26 December 1991. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States became the world's sole superpower, ushering in what political scientists described as a unipolar world order. For nearly a quarter of a century, American political, military, and economic influence remained unrivalled.
However, the international system has undergone profound changes over the past two decades. China's remarkable economic transformation, rapid technological advancement, and growing military capabilities have significantly altered the global balance of power. At the same time, Russia has reasserted itself as an important strategic actor. Many scholars therefore argue that the world is gradually moving away from a unipolar order towards a more multipolar international system, where several major powers shape global affairs.
This transformation has also led to a major shift in American foreign policy. For many years, the United States pursued a policy of engagement with China, believing that economic integration would encourage political cooperation and responsible global leadership. As China's power expanded, however, engagement increasingly gave way to a policy of strategic competition and, in many respects, containment.
Not everyone agrees that containment is either desirable or sustainable. Economist and public policy scholar Professor Jeffrey Sachs has argued that attempts to contain China are both futile and potentially destructive. In his view, the world's two largest economies should devote their energies to addressing common global challenges such as climate change, pandemics, poverty, and sustainable development. Healthy technological and economic competition, he suggests, is preferable to a zero-sum geopolitical confrontation that benefits no one.
Political scientist Professor John Mearsheimer presents a different perspective through his theory of offensive realism. According to him, rivalry between the United States and China is not simply the result of policy choices but is rooted in the structure of international politics itself. As China's power continues to grow, it will naturally seek greater influence, particularly in Asia. The United States, determined to prevent the emergence of another peer competitor, will inevitably resist. From this standpoint, strategic competition between the two powers is difficult to avoid.
Indeed, the competition is already visible across multiple domains. The two countries compete in trade, artificial intelligence, semiconductor technology, military modernisation, cybersecurity, diplomacy, and influence across the Indo-Pacific, Africa, Latin America, and other regions. Their differences over Taiwan, the South China Sea, and global supply chains have further intensified tensions.
Yet an increasingly hostile relationship between the world's two largest economies carries serious consequences for humanity. Escalating rivalry diverts enormous financial resources towards military expenditure, fuels regional insecurity, disrupts global trade, and undermines international cooperation at a time when collective action is urgently needed.
The United States is presently engaged in managing several complex international security challenges, including its support for Ukraine following Russia's invasion and heightened tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, China continues to invest heavily in infrastructure, manufacturing, scientific research, digital technology, and innovation. Whether China will eventually surpass the United States economically or technologically remains an open question, but its rise is undoubtedly reshaping the global order.
The crucial issue is not which country ultimately becomes the dominant power. Far more important is the kind of international order that emerges from this competition. If rivalry is driven solely by fear, mistrust, and geopolitical ambition, the world may witness prolonged instability. If, however, competition is balanced with dialogue, mutual respect, and cooperation, both nations can contribute positively to global peace and development.
China often invokes the Confucian ideal of harmony and peaceful coexistence in its diplomatic discourse. Whether these principles will consistently guide its future conduct will ultimately be judged by its actions. Likewise, the United States, with its long-standing commitment to democratic values and international leadership, faces the challenge of adapting to a world in which power is increasingly shared rather than concentrated.
History reminds us that great power rivalries have too often ended in conflict. The twenty-first century need not repeat that pattern. The world today is deeply interconnected through trade, technology, finance, and shared environmental challenges. Neither confrontation nor attempts at domination can provide lasting security.
Humanity's greatest hope lies in responsible leadership from both Washington and Beijing. Strategic competition may be inevitable, but it should remain within the framework of international law, diplomacy, and peaceful coexistence. The future of the global order—and indeed the welfare of billions of people—will depend on whether these two great powers choose rivalry without restraint or competition tempered by cooperation.
Prof. John Mearsheimer argues that US-China is inevitable consequence of offensive realism, because as China rises continuously, it seeks regional hegemony in Asia. The US acts to prevent another peer competitor. This structural competition for security makes intense rivalry and potential conflict likely. Their competition in different spheres like economy, technology, military, diplomacy and spheres of influence around the globe is clearly visible. Their hostile and antagonistic relationship is not at all good for the world. In my opinion, the US being engaged wars with Ukraine and Iran and China on the other hand is growing very fast in economy and technology, in the next couple of years, US cannot compete with China. If China continues to follow the Confucian policy of world harmony with its high economic growth, perhaps the world will experience the first ever prosperity for all.
Xavier Pfokrehe Mao,
Professor, Department of Philosophy,
North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong.