What was dubbed as a “special military operation” in Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin has been stretched to more than seven months now, after the invasion met fierce resistance from Kyiv. Put on a back foot after failing to pull off its mission during the initial days of the war and Ukraine’s counteroffensive turning the tide of the war, Russia is walking a tightrope today, a situation its leadership may not have anticipated. While the invasion was an avoidable blunder, escalating it by initiating a massive mobilisation will only compound Russian problems. The coercive measure has triggered protests in various parts of the country and caused massive exodus of its citizens to neighbouring countries in droves to escape drafting to fight in Ukraine. Neither forcing unwilling citizens to fight on the frontline nor increasing the penalties for those refusing to take up guns or choosing to surrender will help Russia’s cause. In fact, such moves will demotivate the troops as well as the people who are not drafted yet. The nuclear rhetoric will also further cause diplomatic isolation from the international community, including its friendly countries. With such threats unlikely to deter Kyiv from defending its sovereignty and stop the West from extending help, a long drawn-out war is inevitable unless Moscow reverses its decision and ends the war by respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty. Refusing to learn from the massive miscalculation will only lead to irreparable damage to Putin’s leadership as well as Russia over a possible domestic political crisis if the war is stretched further irrespective of its outcome.
In fact, the impact of the war is already felt across the world, not just the two warring countries. It is threatening to push millions of people, especially in developing countries into starvation. It severely affected food supplies to the Middle East, North Africa and parts of Asia, which heavily rely on Ukraine and Russia for wheat, barley, sunflower oil and corn. With food supplies disrupted and prices going through the roof, the UNICEF has warned that millions of children could die of starvation if the world fails to collectively respond to the global food crisis fuelled by the war. The energy crisis arising out of gas supplies cut by major supplier Russia, in response to the West’s economic sanctions over the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, is having ripple effects, especially on European countries. With the world’s attention on several pressing social and environmental issues being diverted by the war, it won’t be surprising if the United Nations’ mission towards its sustainable development goals, including elimination of poverty and taking climate action by 2030, is pushed back by a few years. This is because there is not a single country that’s not affected by the ongoing war. One lesson the world can take home from the Russia-Ukraine war is not to wage war at all. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was right when he told Putin during their recent meeting that “today's era is not an era of war”.