At last, there is some good news from the economic front
as the GDP growth rate in the third quarter of the ongoing fiscal has risen to
6.2 per cent, after touching a 17-quarters low in the previous quarter.
Although the rise in GDP growth rate has prompted some economists to comment
that the Indian economy is on its way of recovery, the fact remains that there
is a long-way to go before registering a high growth rate once again. With the
rise in the third quarter, it is now being estimated that the country’s GDP
will grow at 6.5 per cent in the 2024-25 fiscal, provided it registers 7.6 per
cent growth in the ongoing quarter. Things do not look brighter for the next
fiscal too as the growth rate for the 2025-26 fiscal has also been estimated to
be below seven per cent, which will be a big blow to the country’s endeavour of
becoming a developed nation by 2047.
The factor which should be scrutinised closely to find
out why the third quarter that always provides much needed fillip to the
economy because of festivities continuing throughout its span has failed to do
so this time. Often, it has been found that sluggishness evident during the
first two quarters had simply disappeared as trade and commerce used to boost
due to elaborate spending by all. Unfortunately, the picture was different this
time which is apparent from the GDP figures itself providing an indication that
a vast majority of Indian people have now been left with very little purchasing
power. If the Indian economy has been able to register a modest growth rate, it
is because of the turnaround made by the agriculture and mining sectors, while
manufacturing and investments have remained a cause for worry as these two
sectors have virtually not shown any indication of contributing generously to
India’s growth story.
To fulfil the dream of a developed India, the country’s
GDP growth rate should be much higher than the present growth rate. To achieve
a higher growth rate, India needs to create jobs, increase in private
investment and engage human resources properly along with ensuring sustainable
development, which is a must as the threat of climate change is looming large.
India’s dream of becoming a high-income country being at a kissing distance
from entering the $4 trillion club faces another major hurdle due to the
possibility of a tariff war that is bound to upset the entire international
trade and commerce as imposing reciprocal tariff by the developed nations on
the developing nations is completely against the policies agreed upon by the
nations. It may be mentioned here that developing nations are compelled to
impose higher tariffs to protect their indigenous industries from the onslaught
of the products by the developed nations. It is quite perplexing that even
after promising to stand beside the developing countries, the US is now
reverting from it. So, it will not be an easy task for India to be a developed
nation by 2047.
