A strong El Nino event developing in the tropical Pacific is expected to bring dry conditions and heightened wildfire risks to parts of New Zealand in the coming months, according to Earth Sciences New Zealand
WELLINGTON — A strong El Nino event developing in the tropical Pacific is expected to bring dry conditions and heightened wildfire risks to parts of New Zealand in the coming months, according to Earth Sciences New Zealand.
The agency said in a statement on Thursday that El Nino conditions have been established and could intensify into one of the strongest on record, potentially shaping weather patterns through 2027.
"As we've seen with the previous El Nino events, the overwhelming majority of long-range models are favouring drier than usual conditions for northern and eastern areas of New Zealand, while western regions, especially of the South Island, are likely to see increased rainfall," said Earth Sciences NZ and MetService meteorologist Jon Tunster.
Tunster cautioned that other climate drivers, including shifting temperatures in the Indian Ocean, occasional influences from Antarctica and climate change, may influence New Zealand's weather, reports Xinhua news agency.
"There's more to it than El Nino, or even Super El Nino, but this El Nino event is shaping up to have a major influence, potentially from September onwards," he said.
He added that wind combined with lower rainfall will dry soils and increase wildfire risk, particularly in hot, low-humidity conditions expected mainly on the eastern and possibly northern parts of the country, while reduced rainfall could lower groundwater recharge, "creating challenges for water-reliant sectors."
Professor Anita Wreford, an applied economist at New Zealand's Lincoln University, said that while the impacts remain uncertain, sectors at risk could mitigate them by maintaining "robust and flexible plans to adjust their practices as the impacts unfold.