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THIRUVANANTHAPURAM — With the counting of votes in the Lok Sabha elections slated in less than a week from now, leaders of all three political fronts in Kerala will be spending anxious moments as they await the results, which will weigh heavily on their futures.
In the 2019 polls, the Congress-led United Democratic Front was way ahead of its rivals, winning 19 out of the state's 20 seats, while Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's CPI-M-led Left Democratic Front managed just one and the BJP’s best performance was finishing second in Thiruvananthapuram and a distant third in the remaining seats.
For the Congress, any fall in its numbers could see sparks flying as things are not that rosy in its state unit where the two key leaders - state party President K. Sudhakaran and Leader of Opposition V.D.Satheesan - have, time and again, had sparred on several issues, as both of them are from different factions in the party. The pressure would be more on Sudhakaran, as he faced a stiff battle to retain his Kannur Lok Sabha seat.
However, UDF convenor M.M. Hassan, who was the acting state party chief during the elections, after a meeting of top leaders, again asserted that the alliance is winning all 20 seats.
On the other hand, Vijayan, who despite his health, travelled all across Kerala to campaign for the LDF, will be the real winner if he can improve upon the one seat that they won in 2019 but will be in deep trouble if the UDF's optimism turns out to be well-placed.
Likewise, for the state BJP President K. Surendran, the results will be a test of credibility for never has a BJP Prime Minister campaigned in Kerala for the Lok Sabha polls, like PM Narendra Modi. Even though PM Modi, in his initial visits, said the BJP's share of seats in the state would be in double digits, he did not repeat this when he visited later at the height of campaigning. The BJP is hopeful of Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur, but both Congress and CPI-M have repeatedly dismissed its chances, saying that it will finish only in third place at all the 20 seats. Surendran also has a personal stake as he is pitted against Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat, which the latter won by a staggering margin of over 4.37 lakh votes in 2019.
Political analyst Gopakumar said as things stand, it is the Congress-led UDF, which should be doing well as there was a strong anti-incumbency sentiment against the Vijayan government in the state and a few issues against the BJP-led Centre.
Vijayan has ducked the media after casting his vote on April 26, when all the state's seats went to the polls and after his three-nation private family trip raked up a controversy, he is, in all likelihood, unlikely to surface until the results come out. If the LDF can increase its share, Vijayan, who led it to an unprecedented second consecutive term in power in the 2021 Assembly elections, will certainly have the last laugh. Even for Surendran, if the lotus blooms in Kerala for the first time, he too will be flying high. However, if Hassan’s words come true, then Sudhakaran and Satheesan would be found smiling.
It remains to be seen which of these eventualities will come to fruition on June 4.