The journey with Covid-19 for Nagaland started with the first case detection on 25th May 2020. True to its pandemic nature, by 31st July 2021 we have 29872 officially confirmed cases. 552 people have succumbed to the pandemic. Experts believe that a 3rd wave is looming large. To compound our anxiety, we experiencing a prolonged second wave as fresh cases continue to be detected unabated and the second wave may overlap with the onset of third wave. Also, experts have opined that Covid-19 may continue as an endemic for after the pandemic is over, meaning that it will not disappear like SAR-CoV-1.People have to understand that in this pandemic situation we are under the control of two important Acts of the country the Infectious Disease Control and Prevention Act and the Disaster Management Act. This is a semi emergency situation and the people are bound to listen to the dictate of the Acts or any notifications under the act as may be issued from time to time. So the question is, have we, every single Naga listened to the call or played our part to help prevent/contain Covid-19 by protecting self as well as the other? Have we lived up to the expectation of the situation? With this backdrop in mind I would like to take the readers to my thinking about recovering from Covid-19 Pandemic.
Recovering from Covid-19 may mean different things for different people. To unfortunate families of people who have died of Covid-19, recovery may not be the right words at all. To some it will be regaining employment or loss of income, to farmers which make about 70 % of our population, recovery from loss of produce or harvest and for the Government it will be economic recovery for it’s people. And, to all of us young or old, learned or illiterate, rich or poor who have survived till date and will survive the pandemic come what may, will need emotional and psychological recovery. But recover we must!
In a short span after the start of the pandemic, it is appreciated that the Govt. of the day could upscale the medical infrastructures including setting up of intensive care units with good oxygen supply system, respirators, ventilators, x-ray machines and of course not forgetting manpower. Today, we are better equipped to handle patients requiring intensive care in all district hospitals. Covid-19 has been a pushing force for the Govt. in as much as providing health care facilities are concerned. I also believe that this pandemic has been a test to their oaths and a learning experience for doctors and nurses alike. Hopefully, all these will lead to better health care in all the district hospitals even after the pandemic. Therefore, Govt. of the day must see spending on Covid-19 especially on its districts as investment rather than expenditure. In the long run it will lead to people saving money that they would have otherwise spent on outside treatment.
The roles by all the dedicated frontline workers are appreciated. Also, with our system of worship, Nagaland was in great danger of super spreader events from devotional services but; for the cooperation of churches. The role of the church not only in maintaining SOPs but also for actively using its platform to give physical, emotional and spiritual support in these trying times must be appreciated. The role of the churches may have unseeingly contributed to economic gain.
The difference between the first wave and the second wave of the pandemic is that the first was centrally driven and the second has been localised and driven by the state. In the first wave lockdown, the state should have gone for only interstate travel restrictions and better surveillance rather than complete lockdown, at least in the initial period. However, because of a central dictate, we were compelled to lockdown. It came suddenly and everything went haywire resulting in heavy economic impact. In the second wave, lockdowns were basically more calculated and state devised need-based call and therefore the economic impact has been less to my observation. We cannot sit over the pandemic to regain what we have lost but start acting. On 5th August, the post pandemic economic recovery was discussed as a topic of urgent public importance in the just concluded assembly session. We learn that departments are gearing up but people must be receptive to Government’s policy. So, how severely has our economy been affected?
Across the world, economy has plunged into deep contraction. India is not an exception. There has been a huge fall in the GDP of India, which has contracted by 24% although come optimistic estimates put it to a lower figure. India may be heading for the worst recession in the post-independence era. Most obvious reason is the lockdown leading to closure of business and unemployment. The supply-demand chain link has been severely affected both in agriculture and manufacturing. Therefore, economic impact has been essentially disruptive in nature. The idea that the third wave is looming large does not help. Economic recovery will therefore call for correction of what has been disrupted.
Basically Nagaland is a “dependent economy” state and its own resource is meagre. To top it, Nagaland is a consuming State importing almost all of our consumables to manufacturing goods. With escalation in all the prices that is happening, the impact on our economy may be especially more with the purchasing power of the common man being stretched. Both at the Govt. and individual levels it might make good sense to put on hold our capital expenditures for the time being. Many construction works continue their construction with escalated prices of raw material and transportation cost.
Vigorous effort on agriculture can ease the pressure on food supply chain and inflation. Nagaland is an agrarian State with majority of workforce involved in agriculture. Boosting Agri. and allied sectors may be our mainstay in economic recovery. Helping increase production of both summer as well as winter season crops can do this. Our demand and supply chain on livestock, meat and fish requirement is heavily leaned on import. We do not produce even half of our requirements. The same manner that jolted the medical service must also act on the agriculture and allied departments to increase productivity. Give farmers seeds in plenty and improve market linkages. Drought like situation is also worrying farmers. Climate is increasingly becoming more unpredictable therefore, expenditures made by government on irrigation must be well monitored and made result oriented on mission mode.
Most of the beneficiaries of various government loans for establishment of small to medium industries mal utilize their loans such that their main objectives of the loans are defeated. Truthfully, Nagas are wont to eating the up the seeds rather than the fruits. There are so many life skills areas that can be filled up by our youths still exist. Our youths must also be receptive to start up programs. Policy makers will also need to understand that apprenticeship or internship is essential part and parcels of successful life skills training. It is not just about training and hand holding loans. Individualised monitoring should follow-up trainings and Assistances. “Start Up Policy” should be pursued vigorously in mission mode.
Experts agree that the economic danger of the pandemic is greater than its health risk. This is true for our state too. Covid-19 caseload and the mortality have not been that overwhelming. Therefore, economic impact will not be from Covid-19 per se but from the actions taken on pandemic. Experience from the Spanish flu of 1918 and its economic impact may throw light as to how the current pandemic will behave. During the Spanish flu, places where emphatic non-pharmaceutical interventions like social distancing, closure of educational institution and disallowing large gathering were done performed better in economic revival. Therefore the dictum, “Stronger pandemic response yields better economic recovery”. The world at that period was also additionally burdened with catastrophe of World War-I. By the first year post pandemic, the economic recovery was shaped mainly because of technological boom seen at that period. Locomotive industry contributed a lot. Today among host of technological developments, e-commerce instance can contribute in the economic recovery.
Unfortunately as of today, the Covid-19 picture in the state is not good. We have the highest mortality rate, lowest case detection rate, lowest testing rate and lowest vaccination rate as compared to other North Eastern states including Sikkim. Health Care Workers and Front Line Workers still must walk an extra mile to reverse this. Policy makers must make strong policy direction. Till today, Covid-19 pandemic has affected the mainly urban dwellers more than the rural dwellers. It had has affected the services sector, mainly the hospitality sector and the business sector, the construction workers and the daily wage earners. Although, commercial farming of perishable cash crops suffered in the first wave, local sustenance agriculture produce was not heavily impacted.
In this scenario as the first step, it is important that families and individuals feel comfortable to return to their normal routine. How soon this happens is going to help economic recovery. It will reduce the burden on the state. This can be achieved by lesser public strictures and effective surveillance of the pandemic and of course cooperation of the people.
We have to understand that economic impact of the pandemic is disruptive in nature with perhaps loss of employment and earning being a prominent feature. Economic recovery may not be a very difficult proposition. As most of our consumptions are imported pandemic has caused escalation of prices, it has caused further stress on the purchasing power of the common people. Therefore, the second step will be to build up our own self-reliance. Government should set up an expert panel of economists to study the nature and extend of economic impact created by lockdowns so far by Covid-19 pandemic on the State, quantify and set targets to achieve pre-lockdown position as early as possible. Meanwhile, let us all be sensitised to the needs of the situation and remember the dictum “Stronger Pandemic response yields better economic recovery”.
Dr. Chumben Murry, MLA
Kohima chumbenmmurry@rediffmail.com