Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Saturday cautioned that the financial system's resilience today should not be seen as a guarantee against future vulnerabilities, and called for continued vigilance to safeguard financial stability.
NEW DELHI — Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Saturday cautioned that the financial system's resilience today should not be seen as a guarantee against future vulnerabilities, and called for continued vigilance to safeguard financial stability.
"Our experience of the past two decades offers an important lesson: banking stress can build quickly and take years to resolve. It took nearly a decade to clean up the legacy of excessive lending and NPAs from the early 2000s. We cannot afford to become complacent; the economic and financial costs of allowing vulnerabilities to build up are simply too high," he said.
Speaking at the Kautilya Economic Conclave here, he outlined five priorities for policymakers, stressing that financial stability should focus not on preventing shocks but on strengthening the financial system's ability to withstand and contain their impact.
"Today's resilience may not necessarily imply tomorrow's immunity, and we are committed to remain vigilant of emerging vulnerabilities and continue to keep our financial system strong and resilient," he said, highlighting the resilience of the financial system supported by healthy balance sheets of banks and NBFCs.
He said shocks, whether endogenous or exogenous, are inevitable and the objective should be to build a financial system capable of providing financial services even under severe stress.
Malhotra also flagged a new generation of systemic risks that are increasingly exogenous, cross-border and interconnected.
The next financial crisis, he said, may not necessarily originate in a bank or even within the financial sector, but could begin with a geopolitical event, cyber attack or technological failure and affect the financial system through multiple channels.
He stressed the need to better understand network dependencies and contagion channels while making scenario analysis a cornerstone of risk management.
The RBI governor also called for improvements in monitoring and assessment frameworks through better and more granular data.
Data on non-banking financial institutions (NBFIs), interconnected exposures, technological developments and cross-border positions can remain fragmented, he said, adding that the data quality would increasingly determine the quality of risk assessment in an interconnected financial system.
He said resilience also needs to be "system-wide", noting that a strong banking system, while necessary, is not sufficient.
Resilience is required across NBFIs, financial markets, payment systems, technology infrastructure providers, critical third parties and cross-border financial networks, he said.
On financial innovation, Malhotra said technologies such as artificial intelligence and tokenisation, as well as new forms of financial intermediation, could significantly improve efficiency, but innovation must not undermine the foundations of trust in the financial system.
He emphasised sound institutions, settlement finality, singleness of money and financial integrity as fundamental properties that need to be preserved.
"The challenge before us is to build a financial system that can withstand shocks that we can anticipate, and even those we cannot yet foresee," he said.
This would require resilient institutions, better data, deeper markets, credible safety nets, effective resolution mechanisms and regulation and supervision that are proactive and forward-looking while remaining proportionate, he said.
"If we succeed, financial stability will remain largely invisible, and in central banking, invisibility is perhaps the most invaluable and meaningful measure of success," he added.
Talking about the challenges, Malhotra said rising global debt, stretched AI-linked asset valuations, elevated leverage, private credit and cyber risks as key emerging threats to global financial stability.
He said financial authorities cannot prevent every shock, including those arising from geopolitical events, commodity prices or technological disruptions, but can ensure that the financial system acts as a "shock absorber".
The RBI's approach to financial stability involves prudent regulation, risk-based supervision, macroprudential measures, liquidity support and resolution mechanisms, he said.
The RBI Governor said the central bank generally follows a "separation principle", using monetary policy for price stability and targeted regulatory, supervisory and macro-prudential tools to address financial stability risks.
On global risks, he said elevated debt was a major concern as higher debt-to-GDP ratios, shorter maturities and hardened sovereign bond yields could narrow fiscal space and strain corporate debt-servicing capacity.
Emerging markets with high sovereign debt held by non-residents could also face capital outflows if carry trades unwind, he added.
Malhotra also cautioned that a slowdown in the AI investment or earnings cycle could trigger a sharp repricing of AI-related assets. Rising leverage could further amplify market corrections and financial volatility.
He said leverage among hedge funds, option sellers, ETFs and other non-bank financial intermediaries, coupled with deeper bank-NBFI interconnectedness, could transmit stress across markets.
Private credit was another area of concern, with some high-profile defaults pointing to possible weaknesses in lending standards, he said.
On AI-related cyber risks, Malhotra said the technology has heightened concerns over cyber security, model risk, third-party dependence and erosion of human oversight.
While these risks may not individually be a major concern at present, their simultaneous occurrence could put significant pressure on the global financial architecture, he said.