Several world leaders, including former UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali and former Indian President Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam had warned that future wars would be fought not for territory but over water.
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Several world leaders, including former UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali and former Indian President Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam had warned that future wars would be fought not for territory but over water, and that it would become primary driver of geopolitical instability. This prediction is beginning to unfold more quickly than anticipated, as evidenced by the surge in water-related conflicts both between nations and within nations. In 2018, the taps across Cape Town in South Africa were on the brink of running dry over severe water crisis driven by rapid population growth, mismanagement, low rainfall amid climate change, before they managed to avoid the Day Zero through rare display of collective responsibility. Today, many cities, from Tehran to Jakarta, are finding themselves in a similar situation that Cape Town faced a few years ago, as rivers are drying, dam levels are plummeting and groundwater depleting. Some Indian cities like Bengaluru, Chennai, and Mumbai are not very different, as its residents are reeling due to chronic water shortage. Surprisingly, Northeast India, known for its abundant freshwater sources, rainfall, and lush greenery, is experiencing a significant rainfall deficit this year, raising fears of drought. The fear is not unfounded. Weather forecasting agency Skymet has predicted that El Niño could develop in the second half of 2026 and pick up strength in the middle of the Indian monsoon, which heightens the risk of suppressing rainfall in the country. We should be wary of this possibility and take measures to mitigate its impact, especially on agriculture and food production.
As per the NITI Aayog report published in 2018, “nearly 600 million people are facing high to extreme water stress” with groundwater on the verge of depletion in 21 major cities. The central government's policy think tank noted that India is ranked 120th out of 122 countries in the global Water Quality Index, with nearly 70% of its water sources contaminated due to untreated sewage, industrial waste, and over-extraction of groundwater. If left unaddressed, the consequences will be catastrophic, especially for health and the economy. Government’s ambitious schemes like Jal Jeevan Mission, which aims to provide Functional Household Tap Connection (FHTC) to every rural household in the country, will also be ineffective if safe drinking water is not available. Unfortunately, the water crisis is only expected to get worse amid erratic weather conditions and changing rainfall patterns caused by climate change. To mitigate the impending crisis, the government must implement measures such as rainwater harvesting, seawater desalination, groundwater usage monitoring, and restoration of natural water systems. We can take a cue from Cape Town’s success story, which was possible due to the government’s transparent approach and cooperation from the citizens through behavioural change. It takes two to tango.