Pakistan has been consistently recalibrating its terror strategy vis-à-vis India. Based on recommendations made by the Kashmir Study Group, set up at the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) headquarters in Aabpara, Islamabad, following the abrogation of Article 370, Pakistan has introduced several changes to its approach.
NEW DELHI — Pakistan has been consistently recalibrating its terror strategy vis-à-vis India. Based on recommendations made by the Kashmir Study Group, set up at the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) headquarters in Aabpara, Islamabad, following the abrogation of Article 370, Pakistan has introduced several changes to its approach.
Operation Sindoor, launched in response to the Pahalgam terror attack in May last year, compelled Pakistan to substantially rewrite its terror doctrine. The most significant shift has been towards concealing the trail and making it harder to establish a direct link between Pakistan-based elements and terrorist attacks in India.
An official said that Pakistan has not only made attempts to set up home-grown terror outfits in India, but it has also now changed the manner in which its handlers operate.
“Earlier, instructions by handlers were given either from Islamabad, Karachi or Rawalpindi,” the official said. This scenario has changed, and the ISI has taken the assistance of Al-Qaeda and Islamic State to run its handler network.
The vulnerable Indian youth are no longer being approached from Pakistan. All these handlers are based either in Syria or Iraq.
When Indian agencies attempt to trace the origins of instructions behind a terror attack, the trail increasingly appears designed to avoid a direct link to Pakistan.
During Operation Sindoor, India had made its position clear that any future act of terror would not be treated merely as a cross-border terrorist attack. Instead, such an act would be regarded as an act of war against India.
An Intelligence Bureau official said Pakistan could ill afford another operation like Operation Sindoor.
“The operation had not only called Islamabad’s nuclear bluff, but also exposed and embarrassed its establishment while demoralising terror groups operating against India,” the IB official said, adding that a lot of money had to be spent on rebuilding terror infrastructure that was reduced to rubble during the operation.
Another major shift that the ISI has made is not to use the terror manuals of groups such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed or Hizbul Mujahideen. These terror manuals are well known to the Indian agencies, and it also helps investigators to find the trail back to Pakistan.
All the handlers who are operating from abroad are instead using material of the Islamic State or Al-Qaeda. Although both the groups enjoy the patronage of the ISI, they are not considered to be originally from Pakistan, officials say.
Pakistan, through Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, has instructed the handlers to encourage lone wolf attacks in India. Such attacks are normally carried out by Islamic State terrorists or those inspired by the outfit.
Another official noted that lone wolf attacks are a preferred choice as it is easier to execute when compared to a structured attack that requires a lot of money, planning, and the involvement of modules.
Further, lone wolf attackers are usually not part of a structured terror mechanism. They are indoctrinated online and often carry out attacks of their own will. Such attacks are also hard for the Indian agencies, especially when it comes to finding the trail. Pakistan gets the deniability factor during such attacks.
“To find a trail back to Pakistan, the Indian agencies would have to get into its Syrian and African networks. This is extremely hard for the Indian investigators,” the official added.
The handlers sitting in these foreign lands have been tasked with scouting for profiles on social media. Once the target is found, they are introduced to their handlers. This is then followed by recruitment, radicalisation, and then planning.
For Pakistan, the primary intention is to strike India. It could be from anywhere and by anyone. The important aspect from Pakistan is to cover its tracks. While India’s new doctrine is one of the main reasons, the others include pressure from international organisations such as the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an official said.