Northeast Political Realignment: NDPP-NPF Merger Could Reshape Future Elections

The recent news about the potential merger of the ruling NDPP and the NPF—currently part of the Opposition-less coalition government in Nagaland—can be seen as a political masterstroke at this juncture.

The NDPP, the dominant party in the state, currently holds 32 out of 60 seats in the Assembly—an absolute majority—and does not require external support to form the government. Nevertheless, a coalition government led by the NDPP and BJP exists in the state. These two parties contested the last two state elections (2018 and 2023) through a seat-sharing arrangement of 40:20. In 2018, the NDPP won 18 seats and the BJP 12. In 2023, the NDPP increased its tally to 25, while the BJP retained 12 seats.

The NDPP’s tally has increased from 25 to 32 after all seven NCP MLAs joined the party recently, thus crossing the halfway mark required to form the government independently.

Interestingly, in the 2018 Council of Ministers, the BJP secured 50% of the ministerial positions, including the Deputy Chief Minister's post, despite the NDPP being the leading party. The NDPP ended up with fewer ministerial positions though the chief ministerial post went to the party, as one cabinet berth went to a JD(U) MLA. In 2023, the NDPP secured seven ministerial berths including the Chief Minister, while the BJP got five, including the Deputy Chief Minister.

However, the NDPP's parliamentary candidate failed to win the 2024 Lok Sabha election in Nagaland. For the Rajya Sabha elections, the NDPP supported the BJP candidate, following their existing understanding and seat-sharing formula.

Currently, the NPF has only two MLAs. If the merger with the NDPP goes through, the NDPP’s tally would rise to 34. While there is no pressing need for the NDPP to pursue this merger—given its comfortable majority—the strategic move hints at a deeper game.

The NDPP is now reportedly eyeing to merge with the smaller NPF, which has just two MLAs. Ironically, if this merger happens, it may no longer be seen as an NDPP-BJP-led coalition, but rather an NPF-BJP-led one. This could potentially dismantle the current seat-sharing arrangement between the NDPP and BJP.

Upon deeper analysis, this maneuver appears to be the political masterstroke of Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio, a seasoned strategist. His focus likely extends beyond Nagaland to the upcoming general elections in Manipur, Assam, and Arunachal Pradesh—especially Manipur, where the NPF currently has five MLAs. Since the NDPP’s influence is restricted to Nagaland, the merger with the NPF offers a gateway to contest elections in these other northeastern states. Notably, Manipur is currently under President's Rule, making the political environment even more fluid.

Strategically, merging with the NPF provides greater political advantage beyond Nagaland and may allow them to contest more seats under the NPF banner in Manipur and elsewhere. This move could also signal the end of the NDPP-BJP seat-sharing arrangement in future elections, especially the 2028 state elections.

Looking ahead, the BJP’s prospects in the Northeast appear bleak. In states such as Manipur, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, and even Nagaland, the BJP is likely to lose ground. Specifically, in Nagaland, the BJP may see a reduction in its legislative strength, with the Congress possibly regaining significance and eroding the BJP’s vote base. The Congress is expected to perform better across the entire Northeast in the upcoming general elections, including Nagaland.

Oken Jeet Sandham