Narendra Modi’s Manipur Test

In the aftermath of the ethnic violence that broke out between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities of Manipur on May 3, 2023, many politicians, particularly from the opposition parties, and the public, including the warring groups, took potshots at the Centre over the manner in which it handled the conflict that killed more than 260 people and rendered thousands homeless. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s long silence on the crisis was questioned. Many believed that his visit to the beleaguered state during the peak of the crisis could have helped defuse the escalating tension that persisted for months, even as sporadic violence continued as late as June. Why hasn't Modi visited Manipur yet? This question has been asked an umpteenth time by lawmakers from rival political parties, intellectuals and civil society organisation leaders, but it remained unanswered. Finally, reports have emerged that he is likely to visit the state on Saturday, more than two years and four months since the deadly ethnic conflict erupted in the state that has a complex history of insurgency which often results in violence, bloodshed and conflicts. What could have been a watershed moment in resolving the crisis, had the visit been planned a few months into the unrest, seems to have failed to generate much interest this time, especially among the two conflicting communities. This lack of engagement is concerning, but Modi’s visit still holds significance, as the crisis is far from over despite the uneasy calm with President’s Rule in place.

The situation on the ground is more complicated than it seems. On one hand, the Kuki-Zo Council (KZC) has welcomed Modi’s proposed visit while reiterating its demand for a separate administration. The recent renewal of the Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement with Kuki militant groups was in their favour as well. On the other hand, the Co-ordination Committee (CorCom), an Imphal-based Meitei organisation, has expressed displeasure over the recent renewal of the Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement with Kuki militant groups. Accusing the centre of mishandling the conflict, it has called for a "total shutdown" during the PM’s visit. Then there are the Nagas, the second largest community in the state, who have been closely monitoring the situation since the conflict erupted. Their apex body -- United Naga Council – has temporarily lifted the ongoing “trade embargo” to protest the scrapping of the Free Movement Regime and fencing of the Indo-Myanmar border, ahead of Modi’s visit, but their decades-long political struggle remains. As per reports, the PM is likely to address public meetings at Kuki-dominated Churachandpur and Meitei-dominated Imphal. He is also expected to announce some development projects and rehabilitation package during his visit. For the people of the state, anything less than a resolution to the existing issues, including the demands of the Nagas, will be inadequate.