Nagaland’s New Political Equation: Rio’s Balancing Act after the Merger

The recent merger between the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) and the Naga People’s Front (NPF) has redrawn Nagaland’s political map. With the NDPP now dissolved and the NPF emerging as the dominant force, Chief Minister Dr. Neiphiu Rio faces perhaps the most delicate balancing act of his long political career.

The immediate question now gripping political circles in Kohima is whether Rio will reshuffle his Cabinet. The BJP had earlier forged a seat-sharing agreement with the NDPP under the 20:40 formula for the 2023 Assembly elections. But with the NDPP gone, that understanding has lost its foundation. To whom will the BJP now raise the issue of seat-sharing?

Seat-sharing agreements are usually made between two distinct parties. When one ceases to exist after the polls, as in this case, it creates not only constitutional but also political complications. Under the earlier arrangement, the NDPP and BJP together formed the government — the NDPP securing seven Cabinet positions, including the Chief Minister’s post, and the BJP taking five, including the Deputy Chief Ministership.

With the NDPP now merged into the NPF, the very basis of that coalition equation has changed. If Rio chooses to reshuffle the Cabinet or trim the BJP’s share of portfolios, he risks opening a new front of political tension. Yet, the growing number of NPF legislators now waiting for accommodation as Ministers, Advisors, or Chairpersons of state corporations presents another equally pressing challenge.

As I see it, Rio’s biggest test lies not outside but within his government. He has been carefully cultivating a national image and expanding his political reach beyond Nagaland. But at home, managing an enlarged NPF fold and keeping the BJP content will demand exceptional political dexterity. External pressures are often easier to handle than internal discontent.

The numbers themselves pose a headache. The NPF now commands 34 legislators, while the BJP has 12 — a total of 46. With the Ministry capped at 12 members, accommodating everyone is simply impossible. Even if 12 occupy Cabinet positions, 34 legislators remain. Subtract the Speaker and Deputy Speaker, and still, 32 members will expect meaningful posts or responsibilities. Distributing them as Advisors or Chairpersons of various undertakings might ease pressure temporarily but will not eliminate competition for power.

The real sticking point is the BJP’s five Ministers, including the Deputy Chief Minister. Removing any of them would invite sharp resistance from the saffron party. Since the current Cabinet structure was drawn from the earlier NDPP-BJP agreement, changing it now without consultation could strain ties with the central leadership. Yet, the NPF-led government, with an absolute majority, no longer needs coalition support to survive — a reality that subtly shifts the power balance in Rio’s favour.

But Rio is no stranger to political maneuvering. His long career has been marked by pragmatism and patience. He knows the value of maintaining cordial ties with New Delhi, especially when the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi dominates national politics. It is unlikely he would risk antagonising the Centre.

It’s worth recalling that Rio has played similar cards before. After the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, he met then-Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh and UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi in Delhi to offer “a letter of unconditional support” from Nagaland’s newly elected NPF MP to the Congress-led UPA government. He clarified that it was “issue-based” support — a characteristic example of his flexible, survivalist political style.

Yet, internal challenges loom large. Within the NPF, leadership issues may not erupt immediately, but as the next Assembly elections approach, competition for party tickets could trigger fresh cracks. Some aspirants denied nominations might switch sides or contest as independents. Rio will have to manage not just governance but also growing ambitions within his own camp.

Looking ahead, it seems increasingly likely that the NPF will contest the next Nagaland Assembly elections on its own, without any seat-sharing deal with the BJP. Deputy Chief Minister and BJP Legislature Party leader Y. Patton has already hinted that his party, too, might go solo — though maintaining a “friendly contest” relationship with the NPF. Both parties may, therefore, avoid confrontation while seeking to expand their individual bases.

Meanwhile, the Congress — long absent from Nagaland’s Assembly — is gearing up for a comeback. It plans to field a substantial number of candidates this time, hoping to exploit the shifting political currents. The Centre’s perceived mishandling of the Manipur crisis — the prolonged President’s Rule, restricted highway movement, and the lack of effective solutions — has dented the BJP’s image across the Northeast.

In the coming elections, the NPF could strengthen its hold in Naga-inhabited hill areas of Manipur, while the Congress may regain some ground in both Nagaland and Manipur. Independent candidates, too, may perform surprisingly well, reflecting growing voter frustration with traditional political alignments.

Ultimately, Dr. Neiphiu Rio stands at a critical crossroads. The merger that consolidated his power has also multiplied his challenges. Managing the ambitions of dozens of legislators, preserving his government’s stability, and balancing relations with the BJP and the Centre — all while preparing for the next election — will test even his seasoned political instincts.

What happens next will not just determine Rio’s legacy, but also redefine Nagaland’s political future. The story is far from over — and every move from here will matter.

Oken Jeet Sandham