Nagaland’s Gross State Domestic Product grows at 8.98% this fiscal

Our Correspondent
Kohima, Sep. 21 (EMN): Nagaland’s Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) has picked up from a negative growth of -2.63% in 2020-21 to 8.98% in 2021-2022, according to data released by the directorate of Economics and Statistics on Wednesday.       

The advance estimates suggested that the state economy has surpassed the pre-pandemic average growth of 5.38% (2011-12 to 2019-20), despite the second wave of the pandemic that plagued the economy during the first quarter of 2021-22, Director of DES, Neidilhou Angami said at a press conference during the release of the GSDP in Kohima.  

In absolute numbers, the real growth of the economy is estimated to increase from INR 17,991.61 crore in 2020-21 (provisional) to INR 19,607.83 crore in 2021-22 (advanced estimates). Correspondingly, the nominal growth of the economy is estimated to have increased from INR 30,425.11 crore in 2020-21 to INR 33,705.84 crore in 2021-22, the official pointed out.

Economics and Statistics Officer, Vikosieto Krose, forecast a positive state GDP. ‘From the past experience, one can see that the state economy is on a positive trend,’ he noted. 

GSDP at market price (2011-12 Series) (as on July 30 2022)

Year	GSDP (constant prices) INR in cr.	Growth rate of GSDP in % (constant)	GSDP (current prices) INR in cr.	Growth rate of GSDP in % (current)
2011-12	12176.74		12176.76
2012-13	12867.90	5.68	14121.27	15.97
2013-14	13792.59	7.19	16611.73	17.64
2014-15	14398.77	4.39	18400.67	10.77
2015-16	14660.49	1.82	19523.95	6.10
2016-17	15649.92	6.75	21722.45	11.26
2017-18	16439.83	5.05	24392.96	12.29
2018-19	16867.71	2.60	26527.42	8.75
2019-20	18476.79	9.54	29715.87	12.02
2020-21 (P)	17991.61	-2.63	30425.11	2.39
2021-22 (A.E)	19607.83	8.98	33705.84	10.78

(Source- Directorate of Economics and Survey)

Primary sector declines

The sectoral contribution to the Gross State Value Added (GSVA) has indicated the structural change of the economy slowly shifting towards the tertiary sector.

The primary sector contribution to GSVA overtime has declined from 31.4% in 2011-12 to 26.88% in 2021-22 (A.E). On the other hand, the contribution of the secondary sector has been hovering around 9% to 12% since 2011-12, reaching a peak of 12.90% in 2017-18. The share of the tertiary sector, which contributed 56.17% to the GSVA in 2011-12, has steadily increased to 62.77% in 2021-22 (A.E), the director stated.

The primary sector comprises crops, livestock, fishing and aquaculture, forestry and logging and mining and quarrying. As per the advance estimates of GSDP, the growth rate of the primary sector is estimated to pick up from -1.73% in 2020-21 (P) to 4.37% in 2021-22 (A.E).

Within the primary sector, the crops sub-sector is the most robust sector with its contribution to GSVA, accounting for 15.41% in 2021-22, followed by forestry and logging, livestock, mining and quarrying and fishing and aquaculture, it was informed.

Secondary sector estimated to pick up

During 2021-22 (A.E), the growth rate of the secondary sector, which comprises all economic activities, is estimated to pick up from -9.12% in 2020-21 to 9.36% in 2021-22.

The manufacturing sector is the core of the industrial sector. The contribution from the manufacturing sector to GSVA was estimated at 1.62% only in 2021-22. Under manufacturing, the major production comes from manufactures of wood and wood products, manufacture of furniture, manufacture of non-metallic minerals and the rest are spread over activities like grind mill products, dairy products, weaving apparels, coke and refined petroleum, etc.

The sub-sector of electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services is the least affected by the COVID-19 pandemic during of 2020-21, while other sub-sectors saw a negative growth. However, during 2021-22 (A.E), the sub-sector is estimated to grow at 9.43%.

In the construction sub-sector, the growth is estimated to pick up from -14.26% in 2020-21 to 8.15% in 2021-22 (A.E), it was informed.

Tertiary sector most robust

The tertiary sector has become the most robust sector over the years, contributing 62.77% of GSVA in 2021-22 and it is estimated to grow at 8.86% during the period.

One of the critical areas where the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was felt the most during 2020-21 was in the trade and repairs, hotel and restaurant sector.

With the normalisation of the economy, the growth of the sub-sector is estimated to bounce back to a positive growth of 6.80% in 2021-22 (A.E).

Sub-sector estimates at 10.69%

The sub-sector contribution to the overall GSVA is estimated at 10.69% in 2021-22, the data showed.

Transport, storage, communication and services related to broadcasting suffered a severe slide down due to the lockdown measure during 2020-21. Consequently, the sub-sector is estimated to register a negative growth of -16.55% in 2020-21 but estimated to grow at 10.22% during 2021-22(A.E).

The financial services are estimated to grow at 9.21% during 2021-22 with a share of 3.89% in the overall GSVA.

Real estate and ownership of dwelling are one of the sub-sectors assumed to be the least affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. During 2020-21, the gross value added to the sub-sector is estimated to have a negative growth of -2.75%. However, during 2021-22 (A.E), the contribution of real estate and ownership of dwelling to total GSVA is estimated at 6.66%.

As per the Budget Estimates of the government, the allocation for public administration has increased from INR 6015.90 crore in 2020-21 to INR 6764.28 crore. Adjusting for the inflationary trend in the economy, the overall growth of Public Administration is estimated at 5.19% with a contributory share of 21.49% to GSVA during 2021-22.

The sub-sector of ‘other services’ comprising education services, human health services and other remaining services is estimated to grow at 16.54%.

PCI reaches all-time high

Over the period of 10 years, the per capita income (PCI) of the state has increased from INR 53,010 in 2011-12 to INR 1,35,701 in 2021-22 (A.E) achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.86%.

PCI is an average measure of income which is supposed to be received by each individual in the state if the total amount of state income is equally distributed among the total population of the state.

Additional Director, Charles N Kikon, said that with an increased PCI, the standard of living is also expected to rise.

‘Yet, often that isn’t the case owing to various determining factors like inflationary pressure, rise of price, unequal distribution of income and so on,’ he added.