A working paper recently released by the Economic Advisory
Council to the Prime Minister (EAC) (PM) has highlighted certain interesting
trends in regard to internal migration in India. The working paper, which uses
data points of Unreserved Ticket bookings sourced from the Indian Railways,
points out that the total number of migrants in our country has dropped by
almost 12% to 40 crore between 2011 and 2013, while the migration rate has
reduced to 28.88%. The paper also pointed out that West Bengal and Rajasthan
emerged as new destinations for migrants along with traditional states like
Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. Punjab and Haryana, on the
contrary, have seen a drop in the number of migrants. The nature and volume of
migration is determined by certain push and pull factors. In theory, migrants
move from an area with less economic development to areas with higher economic
development. Hence the decline in the rate of migration in India may be read as
a positive sign, but these factors do not exhaustively explain the changing
patterns of migration. These ambivalences become visible when we take an
in-depth look at the paper.
Firstly, the fall in rate of migration is indicative of
improved infrastructure facilities and employment opportunities in states that
traditionally see a high percentage of outmigration. This is a positive
development as it may indicate the shrinking of inter-state disparity, which
has been an issue in India for decades. But the optimism regarding this trend
also has to be tempered as the declining rate of migration may also be read as
a lingering effect of the Covid-19 pandemic. This is due to the fact that after
the pandemic, migrants may be discouraged from interstate travel and businesses
may also be hesitant to hire migrants. The decline in the number of migrants
visiting the states of Punjab and Haryana, which are mostly dependent on
agriculture, may be negatively read as the result of agrarian distress. While
on the other hand, it may also be reflective of the improving skill levels of
the migrants who may now prefer to engage in semi-skilled or skilled labour.
The increase of migrants in West Bengal and Rajasthan can largely be read as
positive developments for these two states, but, as two of the most populous states
in the country, the increase in migration may point towards a problem of
chronic underemployment.
The paper published by the EAC-PM is a welcome addition to
the pre-existing research on migration as previous efforts had focused more on
international migration. By focusing on inter-state migration this paper
provides us with various important insights that may be useful for the state
governments to draft new policies in regards to migrants. Unfortunately, this
is still a working paper which is by definition limited in its scope and while
it has important observations, most of them are not conclusive. To better
understand the interesting trends highlighted by this paper, the government
should put all its efforts and energy into conducting a census, only then will
we have a better understanding of these changes.
