Several circumstances made the Central government decide to place Manipur under President’s Rule on the 13th of February 2024 and keep the legislature under animated suspension.
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Several circumstances made the Central government decide to place Manipur under President’s Rule on the 13th of February 2024 and keep the legislature under animated suspension. It’s almost a year now, and the period of reckoning has come for those in power to take a decision on the political future of Manipur. The question is - will it be the restoration of a popular State government, or will President’s rule continue?
The legislators are restive as elections are due in February-March 2027 and want to hold the general elections under a popular state government. Eager most are the BJP party MLAs and the party itself, but a few hurdles seem to have popped up. It is assumed that leadership issues can be settled without much difficulty as there are several aspirants.
The problem on this front is more to do with the capability of the aspirant and the readiness of the political climate. Does the aspirant have the confidence of the Zo (Chin-Kuki-Mizo) ethnic group of tribes, and would a popular government without any assurances change the political climate? Apparently not, as the Zo tribes have gone against the idea of forming a State government without a political settlement or at least its contours. Without their participation, the entire endeavour will blow up as a farcical exercise of power-hungry leaders.
Moreover, the law and order situation under President’s Rule (PR) is far from normal. It’s more like a lull before the storm. There may be no clashes right now as the tribes banished from the centre of political power, Imphal, patiently await some hints about the nature of political settlement. The risk that the formation of a popular government without a hint of political settlement or understanding could create more harm than good cannot be dismissed.
Announcement for formation of a popular government may signal indefinite postponement of any political settlement before the general elections in the state and may trigger renewed violence. Census 2027 exercise is round the corner, and a disturbed situation is something the centre would like to avoid at all costs during this crucial period. The ability of the popular government to carry out the Census exercise with impartiality, transparency, and fairness is questionable.
The stalemate of a “No Deal” situation may continue as long as the dominant community fails to step back and acknowledge the need to empower the “Hill Areas” with constitutional powers to make them truly autonomous. The reward or bait of conceding to autonomous councils, district, or territorial, under the Sixth Schedule may be the lowest form of political settlement that may be acceptable to the Zo (Chin-Kuki-Mizo) ethnic group of tribes, considering that their demand is for a separate administration. Anything lesser than the powers under the Sixth Schedule is not available under the Constitution and is not an option that can be offered. Even the option of the Sixth Schedule is speculative and merely a suggestion to drive home the point that this too may be too little and unacceptable to the Zo (Chin-Kuki-Mizo) ethnic group of tribes.
However, there is the possibility that such an administrative arrangement under the Sixth Schedule with substantial empowerment, not lesser than the powers and functions given to the Bodoland Territorial Council, could be an option for starting a political dialogue.
Manipur, at this juncture, is caught between the devil and the deep sea. Formation of a popular government with no political settlement or even a slight hint about the contours of a political settlement has the risk of triggering renewed ethnic clashes. At the same time, extension of PR could be an admission of failure by the central government to restore normalcy in the state and is not an option that the central government would like to consider when the ruling party has the majority. Extension of PR would be the last option the central government may like to consider, and this option may open the Pandora’s Box.
Identity issues are prevalent in every corner of the northeastern region. The trickiest one is the Naga peace talks, which have been going on since 1997, intrinsically linked inter alia to Manipur Naga tribes and their lands awaiting a political settlement.
The country has witnessed how J&K was downgraded and dismembered by the central government to solve the problem of a difficult and recalcitrant J&K State dominated by Muslims, where the minorities lost their rights. Erstwhile J&K neglected all other communities in its State and adopted a Muslim-centric policy.
Manipur’s situation is not very dissimilar to that of erstwhile J&K. Manipur has been a failed state since the beginning as the dominant community has not been able to see matters beyond their own community. The State government before the imposition of PR, in close coordination with the dominant community, had started to adopt a Meitei-centric policy, ignoring the rights of the minority tribes, and much of the cause of the ethnic clashes can be attributed to such an aggressive one-sided policy. One of them was the biased one-sided stance of the State government before the Manipur High Court, resulting in the controversial Order recommending ST status for the Meitei community, triggering the ethnic clashes.
The unyielding attitude of the dominant community, which has lately become synonymous with the State government, to even utter words of its readiness to concede to a Sixth Schedule-type of empowered administration for Hill Areas, is creating a stalemate. This stalemate could, however, offer an opportunity to the Centre to rethink its strategy in respect of Manipur and all the attendant problems of the neighbouring States to try and find solutions to the political issues prevailing in this region by placing Manipur in a state of prolonged PR administration on similar lines as it was done in respect of erstwhile J&K.
NgaranmiShimray
New Delhi