Personally, the Manipur Chief Minister, Okram Ibobi Singh, must thank the Nagas in general and the NSCN-IM in particular for making him Chief Minister for a record of 15 consecutive years. While acknowledging his wisdom as a veteran politician, without Naga political movement he might have not continued as CM for these many years. With Naga political movement at its zenith, there was/is no other way for the valley dwellers other than to be united under Congress rule. Cleverly, CM Ibobi Singh and his colleagues have presented the Congress Party as the sole protector of Manipur’s territorial integrity. Other political parties, be it regional or national parties, are depicted as dangerous to the territorial integrity of Manipur. Thus, the Naga issue had overshadowed every other issue in Manipur at the same time kept Meitei community united. Many disgruntled MLAs of Congress are afraid to come out openly against CM and the Party fearing backlash from the public. In this situation, whoever speak against CM or Congress Party is considered as speaking against territorial integrity. If hearsay is true then the involvement of Meitei insurgent groups in cementing the Congress government is also very high. Any MLA trying to disturb or breaking up the Congress Government in Manipur are kept under the scanner of insurgent lens. Common people of the valley are tied up together with the rope of territorial integrity by valley based civil organisations especially the UCM and AMUCO. Thus, the Naga political issue provides perfect safe sanctuary for the politicians, insurgent groups, civil organisations and the common people of the valley dwellers to stay together under one umbrella. In other word, the present Congress government in Manipur exists because of compelling necessity from outside force rather than on its own merit.
The Manipur state election is expected to be held in January or February 2017. Whether the present Congress Party will continue to rule Manipur after the election depends on two main factors. The first factor is, if the coming election is fought on the issue of Manipur territorial integrity, as in the past, then it is a foregone conclusion that Congress party will be voted to power again. In democracy, it is the number that decides everything. Out of 60 MLAs in Manipur, 40 MLAs belongs to the valley dwellers. To attract voters, all the valley intending candidates will portray themselves as the protectors of Manipur’s territorial integrity. The ongoing talk between the NSCN-IM and GOI will be employed as an effective tool of electioneering propaganda both in the valley and hills which will help the Congress. The Congress Party had started receiving ‘blessing in disguise’ from the recent visit of Nagaland Chief Minister T.R. Zeliang to Senapati District of Manipur. The effort of NPF in Naga inhabited areas of Manipur will continue to supply blood to the nerve of Congress in the valley. It is very apparent that the valley dwellers will not listen to the voice of rights activist Irom Sharmila as the valley ethnic community wants her to fight for their right in ‘confinement’ and not in ‘public platform’. Congress government in Manipur will play all types of games such as encounters or ambush by Naga insurgent groups as a ploy to win the majority ethnic community. Therefore, if the matrix of election is solely based on the issue of territorial integrity of Manipur, then the Congress Party will win the heart of valley ethnic group and automatically come to power the next term too.
The second factor is, if the election is fought on the issues of corruption, AFSPA and its repressive human rights violation, economic inequality, unequal development, unemployment, illegal migrants, and ethnic unrest, then the people can expect a new government in Manipur. So far all these issues are kept under carpet by the issue of territorial integrity. Manipur politicians including CM Ibobi Singh knew very well that whether the people of Manipur protested or not, if New Delhi wanted to grant any status to the tribal people, then they cannot stop. Should not the citizens of Manipur shed behind territorial integrity as the central focus of election? Today, common people are made to believe that territorial integrity is more important than fighting against corruption, poverty and injustice. But the fact is that if peace and harmony is restored among the various communities, if economic development takes place for all sections of people, if AFSPA is repealed, if corruption is reduced and youths are happy and illegal migrants checked, then territorial integrity will be naturally safe. If people enjoy peace, security for life, development and prosperity in the land, no one will think of breaking up the state. This sums up the whole issue of territorial integrity of Manipur.
The Congress Party in Manipur, with a record number of 51 MLAs in its fold, has so far failed to provide good governance to the people. Despite its failure in many fronts, it continuously survives in the name of territorial integrity. The struggling masses of Manipur have nothing to be proud of. The present unrest and ethnic divides is the result of bad governance. The valley elites knew very well the failures of the present government but are unwilling to speak out as it might bring down Congress government which Party claimed itself to be the custodian of Manipur’s territorial integrity. What alternative will the BJP adopt to combat the Congress only saving manifesto: territorial integrity? How will the people of Manipur respond to various manifestoes and vote for change? It will be of great interest to watch how BJP and other political parties will try to bring change in Manipur. Will they also bark on ‘non-issue’ such as territorial integrity as the matrix of election manifesto? Or will they talk about the welfare of the struggling masses, militarisation, and dispersal of development to every nook and corner of Manipur from the present Imphal-centric development and decentralisation of power including sixth schedules for the tribals? Let’s keep our fingers crossed and watch what happen in the coming days.
