When the winners of the recently conducted assembly general elections were declared, the results were accepted with scepticism by many. The so-called magic number in the 60 member house is 31. The winning NDPP-BJP alliance with the support from one JD(U) MLA and an Independent MLA was somehow able to reach 31 and it gave birth to the People’s Democratic Alliance(PDA). It was only later that a result in a constituency where initially an NPF candidate was declared the winner was made null and void and his opponent, an NDPP candidate, was declared as the winner. This took the tally of the NDPP to 18. The tally of the other parties in the alliance stood at 12 for the BJP, 1 JD(U) and 1 Independent. Later the National People’s Party (NPP) also confirmed of its joining the alliance taking the total tally of the PDA to 34.
At present, outwardly the government looks quite unpredictable due to the presence of a big opposition that has 26 MLAs. It will be one of the strongest oppositions if not the biggest in the history of the Nagaland Legislative Assembly. Earlier in the 5th NLA there were 24 Naga National Democratic Party (NNDP) MLAs in the opposition. Then in 11th NLA there were 23 Indian National Congress (INC) party MLAs who were in the opposition. In both the cases, the ruling party was able to complete the term, although there was a change in leadership in the middle of the term during the 5th NLA.
In the present government, there will surely be some mutterings and discontentment in the distribution of portfolios. However the current set of 18-NDPP, 12-BJP, 2-NPP,1-JD(U) and 1-IND is a set of magic numbers as long as both of the two main alliance partners especially the BJP decides to stick to it. The BJP should be more than happy to have secured the post of deputy chief minister along with 5 others in the cabinet of 12. Although the chief minister is from the NDPP, the party has only 4 members in the council of ministers. The remaining two seats in the cabinet were allotted one each to the JD(U) and the Independent with plumb portfolios.
The 52nd amendment of the Constitution inserted the Tenth Schedule into the Constitution, also commonly known as the anti-defection law. It was further strengthened by the 91st amendment in 2003 and since then has made defection almost impossible. At present there is no such thing as a defection unless it is a case of merger, that too voted by at least two-thirds of the party legislators. For the sake of academics, at present in the PDA it converts to 12 for the NDPP and 8 for the BJP that is required for such a move. However it is not expected anytime soon as the parties seem contented with the present setup. The other magic number of the present alliance is that it has around 13 first timers who are also expected to be content with the new assignments. If only the legislators plan to serve and lead the people then there should be no cause for any instability in this tenure.
After the further distribution of departments among the rest of the legislators are settled it is imperative for the new set of lawmakers to instead get working. Some of the alliance partners had almost promised the moon if compared with the prevailing conditions in the state. The electorates are comparatively more alert these days and so are closely watching every move that the legislators make. The frustration and anger that was generated due to the instability in the previous tenure is still not completely over. One wrong move and the people will take to the streets again. It is time for the new set of legislators especially those in the ruling alliance to humble themselves that they have been given an opportunity to serve the people and start implementing the promises made before the elections. The numbers are on their side if they want it to work in their favour.
