India’s Over-dependence on Monsoon
Published on May 26, 2025
By The Editorial Team
- While the early onset of the southwest
monsoon has raised hopes for a good harvest in the ongoing Kharif season,
several experts have found the expectation a little premature based on previous
records. The meteorological department has informed that since the advent of
the monsoon in Kerala eight days in advance, it has progressed over parts of
Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra, along with the northeastern states Mizoram,
Manipur, and Nagaland. The department has further predicted that this year,
monsoon rainfall will be above normal, with an 89 percent chance of the rains
being in the normal to excess range. According to IMD DG Mr. M. Mahapatra, this
year’s rainfall is likely to be 105 percent of the long-period average (LPA),
which will definitely provide a much-needed fillip to the Indian agriculture
sector, as Kharif (summer) crops account for about 60 percent of the crop
produced in the country in a year. Besides, normal rainfall will provide
adequate moisture to the soil necessary for winter crops. It may also be
mentioned here that, encouraged by the prediction of above-normal rainfall, the
government has set a target of 354.64 million tons of Kharif grain production
this year.
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- However, experts have cited a
16-year-old instance when, despite an early onset of the monsoon, the rainfall
was just 77 percent of the LPA. Furthermore, they have warned that dry air coming
from Pakistan and Afghanistan will adversely affect the progress of the monsoon
between May 27 and June 5, which may result in an unusually long dry spell in
the country. As a result, the monsoon will cover the entire country as usual
only by July. Considering this aspect, they have warned against any premature
celebrations over the early onset of the monsoon. They have advised farmers to
fully utilize the initial monsoon rainfall, as delaying sowing operations may
affect Kharif grain production.
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- India’s dependence on the monsoon for a
good harvesting season is nothing new due to inadequate irrigation facilities.
For the record, nearly half of the country’s cultivable land is unirrigated and
heavily dependent on rainfall. This has adversely affected the agriculture
sector’s contribution to the nation’s gross value added (GVA), which has come
down to just 18 percent, of which 55 to 60 percent comes from rain-fed
croplands. This has left more than three-fifths of the country’s farmers at the
mercy of the rain god, despite the fact that more than half of the country’s
workforce is engaged in farming. The prevailing situation points to the need
for building more irrigation facilities in the country to reduce dependence on
the monsoon. Moreover, weather forecasting has become increasingly difficult
due to climate change, as unseasonal rains, cyclones, flash floods, and other
extreme weather events are being witnessed frequently these days. For instance,
known as a relatively dry place, Delhi might experience the wettest May this
year if rainfall doesn’t recede considerably during the last few days of the
month. To combat such erratic behaviour of nature, the nation needs to consider
climate-resistant farming.
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