- NEW DELHI — India’s GDP growth in Q4 is projected at 6.8
per cent which brings FY25 growth at 6.3 per cent, supported by strong momentum
in sectors such as agriculture, hotels and transport and construction,
according to a new report.
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- While overall consumption growth is likely to remain
healthy, supported by rural demand, the mixed outlook of urban demand needs
monitoring, according to the CareEdge Ratings report, titled ‘The Economic
Meter and GDP Preview for Q4FY25’.
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- “Strong central capex disbursement towards the end of Q3
will support investment growth in Q4,” the report mentioned.
Also read: Oil India records 10 pc rise in net profit at INR 6,114 crore for FY25
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- Going forward, factors such as recovering rural demand, a
lower tax burden, policy rate cuts, falling inflation, and expectations of a good
monsoon should support an improvement in economic activity.
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- A sustained recovery in consumption will be critical to
drive a meaningful uptick in corporate capex. However, global uncertainties
pose a headwind. We expect the FY26 GDP growth at 6.2 per cent, said the
report.
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- Agricultural activities have remained strong, with Rabi
sowing of foodgrains surpassing last year's level by 2 per cent. Domestic
tractor sales increased by 23.4 per cent YoY in Q4 FY25, outperforming the 13.5
per cent YoY growth in Q3.
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- Additionally, fertiliser sales grew by 5.4 per cent in
January-February 2025, higher than a growth of 0.4 per cent in Q3 FY25.
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- Domestic air passenger traffic grew by 12 per cent YoY in Q4
FY25, higher than 11.4 per cent YoY in Q3. IIP mining expanded by 2.1 per cent
in Q4 FY25, higher than 1.8 per cent in Q3.
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- “Although central capex contracted by 4 per cent in Jan-Feb
2025, robust spending toward the end of Q3 FY25 is expected to support
construction activity in Q4, given the typical lag in its impact,” the report
mentioned.
