As climate change continues to disrupt monsoon patterns, causing uneven rainfall distribution, Indian Agriculture will face with challenges that need to be mitigated.
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As prediction of a below-normal monsoon looms, the Central Water Commission (CWC) has announced that the water level in 166 reservoirs across the country is currently 27.2% above normal. This indicates that India's agrarian economy, vital for the rural population, will not be adversely affected by a weak monsoon. The excess water stored in these reservoirs can help mitigate the expected deficit in monsoon rainfall. As climate change increasingly impacts weather patterns, this news is encouraging, given that 64% of the total population relies on agriculture. Currently, only 55% of the country's net sown area is irrigated, while the remainder depends on annual monsoon rainfall, which is influenced by factors such as El Niño and La Niña. El Niño is characterised by above-average warming of Pacific surface waters, which weakens monsoon winds and leads to deficient rainfall and higher temperatures in India, while La Niña is characterised by below-average surface temperature, which strengthens the monsoon and results in above-normal rainfall. Though La Niña is generally more beneficial for India, El Niño is expected to dominate this year.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), often referred to as the 'Indian Niño,' also affects monsoon rainfall in India. The IOD is a climate phenomenon characterised by the sea surface temperature difference between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean. Experts are optimistic that positive IOD conditions may develop towards the end of the monsoon season, potentially alleviating some of the rainfall deficit. However, the Kharif season in India may be nearing its end by the time a positive IOD develops.
As climate change continues to disrupt monsoon patterns, causing uneven rainfall distribution, with states like Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan receiving more rain than Kerala, Northeast India, and central India, the above-average water storage in reservoirs will help mitigate the adverse effects of rain deficit. Notably, India receives over 70% of its average annual rainfall during the monsoon season. Data from the decade beginning in 2016 shows that monsoon rainfall was deficient in at least six years, while it exceeded normal levels in 2021, 2022, 2024, and 2025. With 2027 expected to be yet another year of rainfall deficit, the challenge ahead is how India will respond.