Something is going wrong somewhere. Since the huge victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (BJP; NDA) in 2014, 27 Lok Sabha by-polls were held. Out of the 27 seats, the BJP could win only in five. Moreover, the party’s strength in the Lok Sabha has come down from 282 to 273. Given the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP’s victory juggernaut in various state assembly elections, the results seem astonishing.
Bonding of opposition parties is not the sole reason for the BJP’s dismal performance in the Lok Sabha by-polls. There is something more in the results. We are just a year away from the next general elections. So, time is running out for the prime minister and his party. Introspection of the failures is the need of the hour.
The performance of the central government, BJP’s brand of politics and, more importantly, the conduct of various branches of the Rashtriya Swangsevak Sangha (RSS) should be analysed critically to find out the reasons why the electorate across the nation is rejecting the BJP. Failure to do so will effectively put an end to BJP’s hope of retaining power in 2019.
There are already enough indications that 2019 is going to be very different from 2014. So what clicked for the BJP then will not click this time around. For example, the BJP was in the opposition in 2014. So the party didn’t have to face anti-incumbency. Also, it could contest the elections being on the offensive. Taking advantage of the situation during campaigning in the 2014 general elections, the BJP made promises targeting the failures of the then United Progressive Alliance government at the Centre.
But now the promises have become a headache for the BJP as many of the promises could not be fulfilled. Further, in some cases, the BJP so far hasn’t shown any desire to keep them anyway. There are many examples of such lapses by the BJP government including loan waiver for farmers, or bringing down oil prices, or granting special category state status to Andhra Pradesh. It should be noted here that the promises were not political. Rather the issues were related to the everyday life of the people. So when such promises were not kept, it created a trust deficit between the ruling party and the people. Narendra Modi and BJP need to work hard to regain that trust to nourish any dream of coming back to power in 2019.
Another issue which should not be overlooked is job creation. The BJP promised to create two crore jobs every year. But the central government has failed miserably in this aspect. So the youth, who supported the BJP wholeheartedly in 2014, are now angry with the ruling party. Reforms like the Goods & Services Tax (GST) and steps such as the demonetisation have only increased the number of the unemployed in the country.
Many economists have opined that demonetisation virtually ruined the medium and small scale industry in the country. Their views can be contested. But what cannot be denied is that the step failed to achieve its main goal of unearthing black money. The central government needs to improve its performance. Otherwise, 2019 may witness another change of guard at the centre.
