Gold, silver see sharp swings at start of 2026; outlook remains positive

NEW DELHI — Gold and silver entered 2026 with elevated volatility after an exceptional 2025 rally, analysts said on Saturday, adding that the fundamental outlook for precious metals remains constructive.

Gold futures with February expiry eased moderately down 0.04 per cent, settling at INR 1,35,752 on MCX on Friday. The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold closed the week at INR 1,34,782 up from INR 1,33,195 at the year end, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).

"Comex gold had surged by about $70 to trade near $4,385, supported by rising expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut. However, recent sessions have been marked by sharp volatility as profit booking emerges from higher levels, partly triggered by increased margin requirements," said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

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Investors remain keen on cues from key US economic data next week, including ADP Non-Farm Employment, non-farm payrolls, and the unemployment Rate, which are likely to drive fresh volatility.

Gold surged nearly 66 per cent, surpassing $4,500 per ounce, while silver outperformed with a 171 per cent rise, fuelled by safe-haven demand, aggressive central-bank buying, and mounting industrial supply shortages.

They said recent sharp corrections were largely driven by profit-taking and margin hikes. Importantly, these declines quickly attracted buying interest, supported by renewed expectations of Fed rate cuts, ongoing geopolitical risks, and sustained demand for real assets.

Analysts said that gold is expected to trade in a broad range of INR 1,34,000– INR 1,40,000 in the near term.

MCX gold showed strong support in the INR 135,000–INR 134,000 band with resistance at INR 136,500–INR 138,000, said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.