Before the aam admi (common man) could digest the full meaning of demonetisation as revealed in the RBI report, the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) in its quarterly report announced that the country registered a remarkable GDP growth of 8.2 per cent in the 1st quarter of the year 2018-19. The CSO in its earlier report stated that the country could not achieve the magic figure of 8% just by a whisker in the last quarter of 2017-18, i.e. January to March of 2017-18. The growth registered during the last quarter of last year was 7.9%. The Congress party accused the BJP, especially Prime Minister Narendra Modi for relentlessly attacking the UPA govt for its policy paralysis, yet during Congress regime the country saw its year-on-year GDP growth touching the magic figure of 8%.
Within 48 hours two separate reports gave a conflicting and very contradictory picture of the Indian economy. The Reserve Bank of India in its report has categorically made it clear that demonetisation in no way helped the country’s economy. Most of the notes demonetised came back to the banks. Hence the demonetisation move couldn’t touch the hidden treasure troves of black money. On the contrary lakhs of small and micro enterprises and establishments were hit the hardest due to demonetisation and many of were forced to wind up their business. But more pressingly, over 100 people in the country died during the demonetisation drive.
Now the question is on which report the people will rely on- whether the RBI’s or the other of CSO’s. The two reports are no doubt quite contradictory. If demonetisation has had no impact on black money and destroyed the most vulnerable part of our industrial sector partially by throwing lakhs of entrepreneurs out of business over night. Then how could our GDP over night register more than 8% growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal?
We all know that the country’s general election is knocking on the door. Not even a year is left to hold the elections. Right at that moment two very important pillars of our country – the RBI, an autonomous body and the CSO, a semi-autonomous organisation have brought to the fore two reports which has confused the citizens to a great extent. Let us hope that voters won’t be affected by these two contradictory reports. Rather they would depend on their experience and perception of the whole economic development of this period. That will certainly help them to determine for whom the bells should toll. This is paramount as 2019 election is going to be a crucial election for the country. The outcome of the election this time will determine which path the country will take in the future. Whatever the reports say, the suffering of the common people in the country is only increasing. The youths are not getting employed. Prices of essential commodities are on the rise. Value of rupee is also diminishing - the Indian Rupee has touched a new low against the US dollar. The scenario is not very encouraging. More worrying is the fact that the standard of political discourse is also on the decline. No one seems to have a clue on how to rescue the country from such a situation. So the electorates have to be cautious while choosing their representatives for the next five years without being influenced by such reports.
