New Delhi, March 20 (PTI): Amid a resurgence of Covid-19 cases in Southeast Asia and parts of Europe, experts in India feel that given the high vaccination coverage and immunity due to natural infection, any future waves are unlikely to have a major impact in the country.
Some of them even said that the government should consider relaxing the mask mandate as the daily Covid-19 cases and deaths have remained low for a while.
India on Sunday recorded 1,761 fresh Covid-19 cases, the lowest in around 688 days, and 127 deaths. The active cases also declined further to 26,240, according to government data.
Dr. Sanjay Rai, senior epidemiologist at AIIMS and the principal investigator of Covaxin trials for both adults and children at the institute, said that SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus and mutations are bound to occur.
Already more than 1,000 mutations have occurred, although there are only five variants of concern.
"India experienced a very devastating second wave last year, which was very unfortunate, but currently this is our main strength as natural infection provides better and longer duration of protection. Also, there is high vaccination coverage. Hence, severe impact of any future wave is unlikely," Rai, professor at the Centre for Community Medicine at AIIMS, said.
"It is also time that the Indian government may consider relaxing the mask mandate," he said, adding that senior citizens and those at a higher risk of contracting the infection should continue wearing masks as a precautionary measure.
Having said that, Rai emphasised, the government should continue with the SARS-CoV-2 surveillance, including genomic sequencing, to monitor the emergence of any future variant.
According to Dr. Chandrakant Lahariya, an epidemiologist and public health specialist, the possibility of a fresh surge in India is low even with a new variant.
"If we analyse data on seroprevalence, vaccination coverage and evidence on the spread of Omicron, it is logical to conclude that the Covid-19 epidemic in India is over. For India, the possibility of a fresh surge for many months and even with a new variant is low," he said.
The reason is that because of the hybrid immunity after three waves of natural infection and a large proportion of adults receiving both doses of Covid-19 vaccine, the susceptible pool has come down drastically, Lahariya said.
"We know that antibody level declines over a period of time but hybrid immunity continues to provide protection. Moreover, at this stage of the pandemic, infections and new Covid-19 cases are not a concern. The outcome of those infections should be the criteria to assess the situation," he said.
Lahariya, however, stressed the need for the government to continue tracking situations in other countries, experts to analyse the situation in India, continue genomic surveillance and citizens to get the recommended vaccine shots. "It is also a time that as a society, we prepare for living with Covid," he said.
Lahariya further said the time is right to do away with the mask mandate for the majority of the population.
"It is also time that the Indian government reviews and revises the face mask-related regulation. The time has come that the mask requirement for the majority of the population can be done away with. It can be done in a graded manner," he stated.
Dr. Jugal Kishore, head of Community Medicine at Safdarjung Hospital, said due to high prevalence of seropositivity, which indicates that more than 80-90 per cent of the population has been infected by coronavirus, measures like wearing masks can be done away with.
He also pointed out that due to high natural infection, people are unlikely to have severe symptoms if a new wave of coronavirus comes.
Dr. N K Arora, chairman of the Covid-19 working group of National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (NTAGI), said given the high vaccination coverage and the wide spread of the disease, the possibility of India being hit by a severe wave is less likely. But that should not lead to the lowering of guard as there is always the risk of new variants emerging.
The current understanding is that most of these outbreaks are due to Omicron and its sublineages, he said.
Arora said data from other countries shows that the risk of severe disease and death is primarily for those who are either unvaccinated or partially immunised.
"So, I would strongly request all those adults who have still not received their second dose and are due for their precaution dose to take it. Also, they should ensure that children aged 12 to 18 also complete the Covid vaccination as recommended under the national programme," he said.
Last week, the Union health ministry had asked all states and union territories to ensure an adequate number of samples are submitted to the INSACOG network for timely detection of new COVID-19 variants, continue testing according to protocols and not to let the guard down while resuming economic and social activities.
It also asked them to restart monitoring influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory infections so that no early warning signals are missed and Covid-19 is controlled.
Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya had chaired a high-level meeting on March 16 during which states were advised to focus on aggressive genome sequencing, intensified surveillance and overall vigil on the Covid-19 situation.
India logs 2,075 new cases; 71 fatalities
Meanwhile, India's Covid-19 tally increased to 4,30,06,080 on Saturday with 2,075 fresh infections, while the active cases declined further to 27,802, according to Union health ministry data
The death toll due to the viral disease climbed to 5,16,352 with 71 fresh fatalities, the data updated at 8 am stated
The active cases comprise 0.06 per cent of the total infections. The national Covid-19 recovery rate was recorded at 98.73 per cent, the health ministry said
A reduction of 1,379 cases has been recorded in the active Covid-19 caseload in a span of 24 hours
The daily positivity rate was recorded at 0.56 per cent and the weekly positivity rate stood at 0.41 per cent, the ministry said
The last 24 hours saw a total of 3,70,514 Covid-19 tests being conducted. India has so far conducted over 78.22 crore tests, it said
The number of people who have recuperated from the disease surged to 4,24,61,926. The case fatality rate was recorded at 1.20 per cent, it added
The cumulative Covid-19 vaccine doses administered in the country so far under the nationwide vaccination drive have exceeded 181.04 crore
India's Covid-19 tally had crossed the 20-lakh mark on August 7, 2020, 30 lakh on August 23, 40 lakh on September 5 and 50 lakh on September 16. It went past 60 lakh on September 28, 70 lakh on October 11, crossed 80 lakh on October 29, 90 lakh on November 20 and surpassed the one-crore mark on December 19
India crossed the grim milestone of two crore on May 4, 2021, and three crore on June 23
The 71 new fatalities include 59 from Kerala
Of the total 5,16,352 deaths reported so far in the country, 1,43,765 were from Maharashtra, 67,197 from Kerala, 40,033 from Karnataka, 38,025 from Tamil Nadu, 26,145 from Delhi, 23,492 from Uttar Pradesh and 21,193 from West Bengal
The health ministry stressed that more than 70 per cent of the deaths occurred due to comorbidities
"Our figures are being reconciled with the Indian Council of Medical Research," the ministry said on its website, adding that state-wise distribution of figures is subject to further verification and reconciliation.