CHENNAI — Even as the Southwest monsoon hit Kerala's shores on June 8, the progress of the monsoon since then has been abysmal with the threat of drought looming large over the state.
Since the past two and a half months after the first rains on June 8, rains have been playing hide and seek with the state which gets its maximum rainfall from June till the middle of August which has been very poor in 2023.
According to weather statistics, the state was supposed to receive 1556 mm of rain from June 1 to August 15 but only 877.1 mm of rain was recorded. This means that there is a shortage of 44 per cent rain in the state during the period.
In June there was an acute rain deficit and according to the weather department, the state had a shortage of 60 per cent while in July the rains were better and the shortage was only 9 per cent. However August is worse with many areas of the state having received no rain since the start of the month.
From August 1 to August 15, the state received only 25.1 mm rainfall instead of the expected 254.6 mm and this led to around 90 percent rain deficit.
In Kerala generally, the rains touch the peak during August which is the Malayalam month of ‘Karkidakam’ and suited for Ayurveda treatments. However, with the rains not falling, the state is staring at a massive drought.
[bsa_pro_ad_space id=1]The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has also predicted that the state will not get rain for the next fifteen days and this has escalated the possibility of a drought. Things are not rosy in September either as the state gets very low rainfall during this month.
While the average total rainfall during the four-month monsoon period from June to September in the state is roughly 2018.7 mm, in September it is only 13% of the total rainfall.
According to weather department officials, the rain deficit from June to August is unlikely to be made up by the rain in September. The weathermen have ruled out the possibility of heavy rainfall in September given the weather conditions.
The water levels in the dams of the state are also at an alarmingly low level and the reservoirs managed by the Kerala State Electricity Board (The state depends mainly on power generated by hydel projects), have only 37% water of the storage capacity.
[bsa_pro_ad_space id=1]The power minister told the media that the state was looking at a water deficit and the possibility of power cuts. Buying power from external sources at higher prices is on the cards.
As per the IMD, the state had deficit rains only 14 times since 1901 and the last time was in 2016.
The El-Nino effect is considered to be a major reason and as per the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, the Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are exceeding the El Nino thresholds, especially in the tropical Pacific.
The climate models are indicating that the SST exceeding the El Nino thresholds is a phenomenon that could go up to January 2024.
The weathermen are expecting a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the days to come and this could reduce the El-Nino effect taking the state to a normal season with rains.
However, the IOD is still neutral leading to the shortage of rain continuing in the state for a few weeks more.
With the rains in the state much below par and the El-Nino factor looming large in the Pacific tropic regions and the Sea Surface Temperatures on the rise, the state is facing a drought threat.
Sources in the Kerala government told IANS that the state is relying mainly on the Southwest monsoon for its paddy and other farming and if the rains play hide and seek, paddy farming in the state will take a hit.
In Palakkad and Kasargod the threat of crop failure is high and several farmers are watering their paddy fields using water from borewells.
Dr. R. Rajeev, who retired from a national weather agency told IANS, “There is a drought-like condition in the state as of now and the possibility of heavy rains making up the present losses is not very certain. We are expecting showers in September and it has to be seen how much effective they will be given the present weather conditions in the Pacific.”