NEW DELHI — Riding on resilient economic growth, the domestic stock markets are ending 2024 on a positive note, with Nifty registering a 13 per cent gain (year-to-date) -- its ninth consecutive year of positive gains, a Motilal Oswal Wealth Management report said on Saturday.
The first half of the year saw robust corporate earnings, a surge in domestic flows, and a resilient macro landscape, driving the Nifty to an all-time high of 26,277 in September.
In fact, the markets navigated significant events, such several global geo-political issues, General Elections and Budget in India, and any dips were swiftly met with strong buying activity, the report mentioned.
“The year 2025 could unfold as a tale of two halves. The first half may continue to see market consolidation, while a recovery could take place in the second half,” it added.
In the last two months, the market has corrected 11 per cent from its all-time high, amid selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) due to a combination of domestic and global factors.
Going forward, the Indian markets are likely to face significant influences from a combination of global and domestic economic events.
The anticipated rate cut by the RBI in February, the ongoing trend of US rate cuts, and the expectations surrounding trade policy changes post Donald Trump taking over as US President in January will contribute to market volatility.
“Additionally, the Union Budget in February will offer important signals to the market. With a fragile global economic environment and mixed macroeconomic factors at home, the market is expected to remain in consolidation mode in the near term,” the report noted.
Earnings are expected to recover in H2 FY25, driven by increased rural spending, a buoyant wedding season, and pickup in government spending.
“We further expect earnings to gain momentum, delivering a 16 per cent CAGR over FY25-27E. We remain optimistic about the long-term trend, given the strength of corporate India’s balance sheets and the prospects for robust, profitable growth,” the report said.