It is not surprising for a Meitei leader to advocate a policy against the Naga movement and its related issues since it can result in changing the political map of Manipur.
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A short video clip titled “Biren Singh Led BJP Government against Naga Issue and NPF Ideology” has resurfaced on social media repeatedly. He is seen addressing the public and in the Assembly on Free Movement Regime (FMR), border fencing, Naga People’s Front (NPF) ideology, Autonomous District Council (ADC) matters, and the Naga political issue. It is not surprising for a Meitei leader to advocate a policy against the Naga movement and its related issues since it can result in changing the political map of Manipur. These are known facts, and such an approach from Meitei leaders is understandable.
In the same video clip, the President of NPF of Manipur is seen praising Biren Singh, displaying cronyism and servility, forgetting the ideology of the party. He alone cannot be condemned for grovelling to the Chief Minister, as all politicians will heap praises to remain in the seat of power. Although there are various ongoing peace talks, many people are becoming sceptical whether it will be able to deliver its professed goals given the opposition from the dominant community in Manipur. There is no need to be disheartened, as there appears to be a game changer gradually building up for the tribes in Hill Areas that may yield demographic dividends eventually.
The ethnic clashes of 3rd May 2023 changed the political dynamics of the State. The Zo (Chin-Kuki-Mizo) ethnic group, banished from the State capital (Imphal), wants to break away and is demanding a separate administration, leaving the Nagas to fend off the hegemonic designs of the dominant community controlling the administration, legislature, and judiciary in Imphal. The exclusion of a sizeable number of tribal people from the government machinery is grossly wrong and violative of any democratic principles, requiring remedial action for normalcy to return to the State. The prolonged stalemate of almost three years now appears to indicate that the dominant community is not interested in seeing the return of the estranged people to Imphal, as they have not uttered any reconciliatory words to start any meaningful dialogue, but have instead directed their energy towards the formation of a popular government with or without the participation of the Zo (Chin-Kuki-Mizo) ethnic group. The political priorities appear to be misplaced, as government formation takes precedence over coexistence.
The Naga movement has consistently advocated for a united Naga entity. If acceded, this would result in the integration of contiguous Naga-inhabited areas into Nagaland State. Laldenga, a pragmatic leader, secured a political agreement despite a weakened MNF force. He leveraged the popular demand of the Mizo people to accept the offer of a full-fledged State by abandoning the demand for a flag displaying statesmanship. This led to the acceptance of the ‘Mizoram Accord’ under an amenable Prime Minister, Rajiv Gandhi. In contrast, Naga leaders have not been able to simplify their demands, instead infusing complexities into the amorphous concept of ‘shared sovereignty’. This concept includes a ‘Naga Constitution and flag’, which are outside the ambit of the Indian Constitution. The hope of acceptance of such a concept under the Constitution waned after the Centre abrogated Article 370 in August 2019, which granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir, allowing a State Constitution and flag. The concept of ‘shared sovereignty’ is much broader than what erstwhile Jammu and Kashmir enjoyed under abrogated Article 370. Therefore, the prospect of a new and unique arrangement of ‘shared sovereignty’ as a political settlement for the Naga issue seems remote in the backdrop of the NDA government abrogating Article 370 for Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019, four years after the Framework Agreement was signed in August 2015. Considering the evolving political scenario in Manipur with a stalemate in all peace parleys, the tribes in the Hill Areas of Manipur need to consider adopting a long-term strategy.
The population of the State has been growing faster in favour of the tribes, mainly driven by the policy of the Meitei-dominated State government to appropriate the lion’s share of the State’s resources for the valley, thereby depriving the Hill Areas of much-needed developmental resources, keeping them backward. The resultant backwardness in Hill Areas has spurred a higher fertility rate, leading to an increase in the tribal population and narrowing the population gap between them and the dominant community, as evident from each census report. The demographic shift will become clearer from the 2027 Census population data, which will be the basis for the delimitation exercise slated to take place after the 2027 Census. Had the delimitation exercise based on the 2001 census population figures taken place, the Hill Areas would have already gained at least three assembly seats, but this was scuttled by the dominant community. The increase in the population of tribes in Hill Areas under Census 2027 could significantly increase the number of assembly seats for Hill Areas vis-à-vis that of the valley area, narrowing the gap of seats between the valley and Hill Areas. Under such a scenario, the Muslim MLAs could emerge as the kingmakers.
It is feared that the Meitei leaders will never agree to any empowerment of Hill Areas or breaking up of the State under any political peace settlement until the prospect of losing political power through the delimitation exercise based on population figures becomes apparent and a reality. Herein lies the trump card for the tribes. The tribes need to work on a long-term strategy of sustaining a high fertility rate in Hill Areas with the hope of reaping a demographic dividend decades later to flip the political equation in their favour. Working on this strategy will facilitate both the Nagas and Zo (Chin-Kuki-Mizo) ethnic groups to have their own separate administration or amalgamate with their respective sister State without any resistance. This will happen when the Meitei community finds itself in a minority and allows the tribes to split from the State in order to retain political power. The prospect of the peace talks of the Naga and Zo (Chin-Kuki-Mizo) ethnic groups yielding positive results is remote considering their ambitious demands. The central government can weather the long haul with its immense manpower and resources, while the charm of the freedom movements slowly erodes from long-drawn fatigue and corruption. The peace talks fructifying is a long shot and is becoming bleaker with the passage of time. On the other hand, the prospect of reaping a demographic dividend in the long run through the democratic route and strategic long-term planning will become brighter with each passing decade.
For both the Nagas and Zo (Chin-Kuki-Mizo) ethnic groups of tribes from Hill Areas, the strategy for the long haul should be to stay together within the State of Manipur and fight the common foe till such time the combined tribes gain the upper hand for reaping the demographic dividend. At that juncture, the Meitei community would not have many options, but willingly and voluntarily open the door for the tribes to have their own separate political entity or integrate with their respective sister States. This game-changing strategy warrants serious consideration by the tribes living in Hill Areas of Manipur to free themselves from the shackles of domination.
Ngaranmi Shimray
New Delhi