The arrival of the south-west monsoon ahead of schedule will definitely bring cheer to crores of Indians, especially those associated with agriculture and allied fields. It is hoped that this year the monsoon will not be as wayward and deficient as it was in the previous year. The limited rainfall last year severely affected agricultural output, as well as rural income. The unusual pattern of rainfall is the main reason behind unprecedented food inflation. Although the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has already predicted normal to above-normal rainfall in the country during this monsoon season, there is still no clarity on the temporal distribution of rain. Clarity is necessary as it will help farmers plan their activities which is crucial for an agrarian economy like India. More than 50 per cent of the nation’s workforce is engaged in agricultural activities. So the IMD’s predictions regarding the monsoon need to be more accurate to help the Indian economy progress.
Monsoon plays a crucial part in making this subcontinent one of the most sought after places in the world. India has a wide range of natural resources, fertile lands and more than adequate workforce. It would not be an exaggeration to say that monsoon is the lifeline of the Indian subcontinent. But with the change in climate due to global warming, the monsoon has been erratic for the past few years, causing hardship to the populace living in this part of the world. Unseasonal rains, floods, and drought have all been witnessed in the last few years, putting a question mark on the feasibility of agriculture and allied activities in one of the most fertile lands in the world.India requires rain during monsoon season in the Gangetic plain, Maharashtra and in the Himalayan region to feed the country’s huge population. As a matter of fact, favourable monsoon conditions are critical to the Indian economy as industrially the nation is yet to establish itself at par with developed countries.
In India, a good monsoon means not only good harvest, but also good income that helps other sectors of the economy grow. In this regard, the failure to make our irrigation system more effective has increased our dependence on Monsoon rather than reducing it, making good monsoon a prerequisite for economic development for the country. Sufficient rainfall in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, etc. is necessary for crops like rice, pulses, oilseeds, etc. among others. With the El Nino effect disappearing fast and the La Nina effect becoming visible, more than adequate rainfall may be witnessed. But there is uncertainty until the micro level forecast of rainfall in the country is established. There are possibilities that some areas of the country may not receive adequate rainfall even during this favourable situation. The country needs to draw a contingency plan for such areas receiving deficient rains to keep the wheel of the Indian economy moving efficiently.