In the wake of the violent turn of events in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), Indian agencies say that the Pakistani establishment is playing with fire, as the repercussions of the brutal crackdown in PoK are likely to spread across the country
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NEW DELHI — In the wake of the violent turn of events in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), Indian agencies say that the Pakistani establishment is playing with fire, as the repercussions of the brutal crackdown in PoK are likely to spread across the country, and it is staring at a situation that it would be unable to handle.
The Pakistani security forces have been ordered by Islamabad to use brute force and shut down the protests. The Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC), which is at the forefront of the protests, says that over 450 people have been detained and over 20 people have been killed.
An official said that the people of PoK are in disarray at the moment. They are being denied all kinds of amenities such as water and food. Mobile services have been cut off in several parts of PoK, including Neelum Valley, Mirpur, Poonch, Rawalkot, and Muzaffarabad.
The official added that while using of brute force against the protesters may quieten the situation for now, there are enough inputs to suggest that these agitations would engulf the whole of Pakistan soon. For Pakistan, the problems are also increasing on the global stage. Protests at several Pakistan missions in many parts of the world are already taking place, and this is only going to increase in the days to come.
An Intelligence Bureau official said that there are coordinated efforts that are being made to amplify the problem. For instance, the social media campaigns in support of the protesters have risen sharply and point towards a state-sponsored drive to eliminate protesters.
The Interior Department in Pakistan has gone to the extent of offering (Pakistani) Rs 1 million for information that would lead to the arrest of four key members of the JAAC. The official said that Pakistan is cash-strapped, and even as the annual budget process has hit a roadblock, it continues to offer bounties. The deadlock is over military spending, which the government feels is too much given the current economic situation that Pakistan is in, the official said.
Another official said that the Pakistan establishment has decided to attack the protesters from every angle. While using brute force, the establishment is also building up false cases against the protesters, the official said. The government has ordered investigations into the speeches, electronic communications, and writings by the protesters. The police have been ordered to complete these investigations as soon as possible and then submit formal challans in the respective courts.
The primary targets are Shaukat Nawaz Mir and Khawaja Mehran Arshad, who are at the forefront of the protests. The Senior Superintendent of Police, Muzaffarabad, has been told to probe Mir on sedition charges and anti-state activities. Officials say that the state wants to build up cases against the two and then ensure a conviction in the courts so that they can be kept out of protest sites.
Pakistan watchers say that tensions have been simmering in PoK for some time now. There had been discussions between the government and JAAC a couple of months back. However, the promises made by the establishment have not been honoured, and this is why the protests have erupted again.
The experts say that the security forces are trying to contain the protesters by using force and also filing false cases against them. However, the social media campaigns and the global protests in front of Pakistan missions are something that the establishment is unable to contain. The economic situation, not just at PoK, but across Pakistan, is going from bad to worse. This is being amplified on global stages as well as on social media. Intelligence assessments clearly suggest that the protests would not just be restricted to PoK, but would spread across Pakistan soon.
The establishment would find the situation hard to contain as it is being attacked for bad governance on multiple fronts. Another official said that the entire establishment is not on the same page. There are many within the political class who are questioning the atrocities being committed by the security forces. They warn that agitations in support of the PoK people could soon spill onto the streets of Islamabad and Karachi.
Officials say that among all these developments, Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir stands exposed. The decision to ban the JAAC on June 6 under the anti-terrorism legislation was a misstep by the establishment. The criminalisation of a civil rights movement, which has only been demanding development, is going to backfire, officials also pointed out.
Another official said that the Pakistan establishment has failed to handle the situation properly. The initial demands were for the development of the region. Today, the JAAC is pressing for autonomy and an end to the direct rule of PoK by Islamabad. The same demands are being amplified on the global stage, and with social media on fire, the Pakistan establishment is staring at a major crisis that could spread across the country, officials also point out.