Brazil’s presidential election has tightened into a closely fought contest, with two polls showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round but locked with him in a possible run-off.
WASHINGTON — Brazil’s presidential election has tightened into a closely fought contest, with two polls showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round but locked with him in a possible run-off.
A survey released Monday placed Lula at 42 per cent and Bolsonaro at 37 per cent, Folha de S.Paulo reported.
Lula’s support increased from 40 per cent in the previous survey. Bolsonaro remained at 37 per cent.
The five-point difference is slightly greater than the survey’s margin of error of two percentage points.
The poll showed a much closer contest if neither candidate secures enough votes to win outright.
In a projected second round, Lula received 46 per cent and Bolsonaro 44 per cent. The result was a statistical tie within the margin of error.
A separate Quaest poll also gave Lula a five-point first-round lead. It placed the president at 39 per cent and Bolsonaro at 34 per cent.
Lula had received 37 per cent in the previous Quaest survey, while Bolsonaro was at 33 per cent.
The two candidates were tied at 42 per cent each in the survey’s projected second-round contest.
The results suggest Lula has maintained a narrow first-round advantage but has not broken away from his principal challenger.
They also point to a highly competitive run-off if Sunday’s voting fails to produce an outright winner.
The BTG/Nexus poll surveyed 2,000 voters aged 16 and above across Brazil between September 25 and 27.
It had a margin of error of two percentage points and a confidence level of 95 per cent. The survey was registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under the number BR-07557/2026.
Other candidates remained well behind the two leaders.
Writer Augusto Cury and former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado each received 5 per cent. Renan Santos was at 4 per cent, while Romeu Zema and Samara Martins received 1 per cent each.
Blank and invalid votes accounted for 3 per cent. Another 2 per cent of respondents were undecided or did not answer.
The Quaest survey questioned 2,004 voters between September 24 and 28. It also had a two-point margin of error and a 95 per cent confidence level.
That poll was commissioned by TV Globo and O Globo.
Cury and Caiado each received 4 per cent in the Quaest first-round survey. Santos was at 3 per cent and Zema at 1 per cent.
Five per cent of those questioned were undecided. Ten per cent said they would cast a blank or invalid ballot or would not vote.
The proportion of undecided voters in the Quaest survey has fallen from 10 per cent on September 14 to 5 per cent. Support for candidates other than Lula and Bolsonaro also declined from a combined 16 per cent to 12 per cent.
Lula, the leader of the left-wing Workers’ Party, is seeking another term as president. Bolsonaro, a member of the conservative Liberal Party, is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and represents the principal challenge from Brazil’s political right.
Brazil is India’s largest partner in Latin America and works closely with New Delhi through BRICS, the G20 and the India-Brazil-South Africa Dialogue Forum. The two countries also cooperate in agriculture, energy, defence, pharmaceuticals, climate policy and efforts to reform global institutions.