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Finally, the hour has come for which the people of the whole country were waiting. The Election Commission has announced the dates for the Lok Sabha elections. The first phase begins on April 19. The results of the election are coming on June 4.
PM Modi has set a target of winning 370 seats for BJP and 400 seats for NDA in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but achieving this goal is not easy. PM Modi's magic may be speaking in the heads of people in the northern states, but it is still faded in the south. In such a situation, how will the dream of400 come true.
Maths of crossing 400 in 2024
The BJP has put its full focus on where there was some stones unturned in the last Lok Sabha elections. That is, on the basis of past performance, the opposition camp is calling the states 'disaster' for the BJP, the BJP strategists are seeing the scope of increasing the seats as an 'opportunity'
BJP eyes are on Northeast. There is immense scope for expansion for the BJP in the northeastern state too, but it is not easy to expect much in the face of Naveen Patnaik and Mamata Banerjee. To achieve the dream of crossing 400, BJP will have to increase its seats in Bengal and Odisha. Of the total 25 Lok Sabha seats in the northeastern states, the BJP occupies 11 so far, but it is expected to increase only in Assam due to regional parties.
Assam has a total of 14 Lok Sabha seats, out of which BJP has 9 seats, where it can increase by three to four seats. BJP's effort will be to increase its 9 seats in Assam to 12. The BJP alliance is trying to keep all the 25 seats in the Northeast, including Arunachal to Meghalaya and Tripura.
BJP's hopes pinned on the South.
To cross the 400-mark of the NDA, it will have to win in the southern states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. These states have a total of 104 Lok Sabha seats, of which the BJP has only four seats, which it got in Telangana. In Karnataka, BJP has formed an alliance with JD to win 29 seats in the state. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, the BJP has once again forged an alliance with the TDP and Pawan Kalyan's Janasena Party.
The BJP is trying to emerge as the third force between the Congress and the CPM, which have fought together in the INDIA and against each other in Kerala. By including the children of two big Congress heavyweights, the BJP has started trying to fill the space of the vacant opposition against the Left alliance.
In 2024, the BJP can get the benefit of SP and BSP contesting separately in UP. In 2014, when the BJP had won 71 seats and its ally 2 seats, the BJP had hoped for the same result again and has also increased its clan.
The BJP has two seats in Punjab, but the way the Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress are preparing to contest against each other. Veterans of the province The leaders have been mixed with the BJP, it seems that the party's seats can increase this time. For the first time, the BJP will contest alone in Punjab and will contest all the seats. Out of 13 seats in Punjab, BJP has planned to win 4 to 5 seats.
There is immense scope for expansion for the BJP in the northeastern states too, but it is not easy to expect much in the face of Naveen Patnaik and Mamata Banerjee. To achieve the dream of crossing 400, BJP will have to increase its seats in Bengal and Odisha
The Hindi-speaking states of North India — Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Jharkhand, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand — have 193 seats.The seats are occupied by the BJP. The challenge for the BJP is to not only retain its seats in these states but also increase its number.
Prof. M.K.Sinha,
Professor of Economics
Nagaland University