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Read below: Congress leads BJP in Chhattisgarh: Exit Poll
NEW DELHI — An exclusive Exit Poll conducted by CVoter for ABP News has revealed that the Congress looks set to defeat the BJP in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections.
The Congress had won by a narrow margin in 2018, but lost power in 2020 when a group of rebels led by Jyotiraditya Scindia joined the BJP.
In this round of elections, ABP-CVoter projections make it clear that the Congress will almost certainly get a majority in the House of 230 seats.
According to the ABP-CVoter Exit Poll conducted with a sample size of 45,521, the Congress is winning between 113 and 137 seats, with 116 being the simple majority mark in the state.
In 2018, the Congress had won 114 seats.
The vote share of the party is set to go up to 44.1 per cent this time from the 40.9 per cent it managed in 2018. In contrast, BJP's vote share in Madhya Pradesh is set to decline marginally from the 41 per cent it obtained in 2018.
The Exit Poll projects the BJP to win between 88 and 112 seats. Even in the best case scenario, the BJP manages 112 seats, which is short of the majority mark.
If the Exit Poll projections hold good, Kamal Nath could be back as the Chief Minister.
The poll also shows that the BSP is a spent force in the state and is projected to win less than 3 per cent of the vote share.
A deeper analysis of the Exit Poll numbers also shows that the BJP is not gaining significantly in the Chambal region as was hoped after the entry of Jyotiraditya Scindia. The Scindia family has deep roots in the Gwalior-Guna region.
Out of the 34 seats in the region, the BJP is projected to win between 4 and 8 seats. In 2018, the party had won only 7 seats in the region while the Congress had romped home with 26 seats. The exit poll numbers show a similar trend this time.
Interestingly, while the Congress had projected Kamal Nath as its Chief Ministerial candidate even before the election dates were announced, the BJP did not project Shivraj Singh Chauhan as its CM face.
An exclusive Exit Poll conducted by CVoter for ABP News has revealed that the Congress is tantalisingly close to retaining Chhattisgarh in the latest round of Assembly elections.
This is in contrast to the previous elections in 2018, when the Congress had ended the 15-year reign of the BJP by sweeping the state, winning 68 out of 90 seats.
According to the latest ABP CVoter Exit Poll conducted with a sample size of 19.171, the Congress is projected to win between 41 and 53 seats. The party is projected to get 43.4 per cent votes, marginally higher than in 2018.
The BJP's vote share is projected to dramatically increase from 33 per cent in 2018 to 41.2 per cent this time.
However, the big jump in vote share may not help the BJP return to power in Chhattisgarh, as it is projected to win between 36 and 48 seats.
Both the BJP and the Congress are projected to gain in vote share at the cost of smaller parties.
Others had obtained a vote share of 23.9 per cent in 2018, which is projected to come down to 15.4 per cent this time. They are projected to win between 0 and 4 seats this time.
That makes Chattisgarh a straight bipolar contest between the Congress and the BJP.
There is a possibility of a twist in the tale, according to deeper analysis of the Exit Poll numbers. According to the poll, there are about 28 seats in the state where the two rivals are neck and neck and the victory margins could be thin.
According to the ABP-CVoter projections, if all the marginal seats go anti-incumbent, the BJP could actually recapture the state by winning between 54 and 60 seats. However, if all the marginal seats go pro-incumbent, the Congress will retain power by winning between 56 and 62 seats.
The results of the Assembly elections will be declared on December 3.