Buoyed by the success in three Hindi heartland states, the opposition is now dreaming to dethrone Prime Minister Narendra Modi from power at the Centre. A day prior to the results of Assembly polls, 21 opposition parties met in Delhi and vowed to fight together against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Thus a possible political realignment is definitely on the cards. But will it be enough to take on Mr. Modi and his party?
Before entering into this debate any further, let us clarify a few things. Firstly, results of three Assembly polls were not unexpected. While the Rajasthan electorate is known for adopting the so called ‘revolving door policy’, in which the government changes every five years, BJP was in power in both Madhya Pradesh and Chattishgarh for the last 15 years. So a possible change of guard was quite likely. Taking advantage of the situation, Congress has managed to beat BJP in all these three states. Congressmen may think that the party has achieved something big by winning in these elections. But the fact remains that the party was propelled to power because of strong anti-establishment mood. Congress should not overlook the anti-establishment factor. The same factor went against the party in Mizoram, where Congress was dethroned after being in power for 10 years. Besides, Telangana result shows Congress’ vulnerability against strong regional forces. The party has to bite the dust in this southern State even after aligning with traditional foe like Telegu Desham Party (TDP) along with some other smaller parties. So the party should introspect whether it has regained its lost ground or not?
If Congress thinks that success in three mainland states will pave way for the party’s return to power at the Centre, Rahul Gandhi & Co. are yet to understand reality. Firstly, the general election is different from assembly elections. Secondly, even after being aided by strong anti-incumbency mood, the party’s vote share has not increased manifold. It almost remained static. As a result, barring Chattishgarh, in both Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh the party barely managed to scrape home as it failed to make a dent in BJP’s vote bank. Victory is always important. But a victory is not sufficient enough to hide one’s weaknesses. Thus, it can be safely concluded that the recent success of Congress will revitalise its leaders and supporters. But clearly this is not enough to reclaim the lost throne at the Centre.
To hide the deficiencies, Congress is now going all out to align with non-BJP parties, expecting those parties to accept its leadership. But already at least four regional parties have refused to accept Congress as the leader of the opposition alliance. These parties are SP, BSP, TMC and TRS. If both Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav remains firm on their stand of keeping a distance with Congress, the party will have to return empty-handed from the most populous State of the country, which effectively means that the party will lose 80 seats even before a vote is cast. So instead of taking shortcut routes to power, Congress should engage all its energies to rebuild the party. Otherwise, the euphoria over the recent victories will evaporate in no time.
