The Long Wait

As the state prepares for yet another assembly elections and with less than 35 days for the polls and barely two weeks left for the last date nominations, the uncertainty over the elections still persists as the parties still cannot decide on the pre-poll alliances. Except for the ruling national party announcing the names of those who joined their party in a big way the rest have chosen to still keep mum. Nagaland, being a state with special privileges for a long time always needed the support and assistance of the ruling national parties but this time it has beaten all the previous elections. The issue started with the NPF’s haphazard severing of ties with long time ally the BJP in July 2017. The outcome of the very crucial meeting of the Central Executive Council of the NPF party is awaited for a review of its earlier decision. It is expected that the decision will go towards the NPF continuing the alliance with the BJP. Although the BJP is found to be quite comfortable with the present Chief Minister TR Zeliang from the NPF party, with Dr. Shurhozelie Liezietsu running the affairs of the party there are two perceived powers centres that would not be favourable for any alliance partner . The constant assistance that TR Zeliang receives from the BJP is no longer a secret. It was alleged by the party president earlier that his ministry was unconstitutionally toppled by TR Zeliang in July 2017 with the help of the BJP, the one major reason NPF severed ties with BJP. Therefore going to the polls without ties with the BJP or the support of any other prominent national party is a risky for the regional parties especially NPF. Such plays with numbers and equations are no doubt part of the politics especially in India at present. This time, with the BJP wanting to show its successful entry in to every state in the whole of the country the prominence of the ruling party has increased. The big win in Assam and the installation of BJP led governments in Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh might just have emboldened the BJP. The NPF led DAN is known to have boldly gone to the polls in 2008 when the ruling party at the Centre was the UPA and its opponent. President’s Rule was also imposed just one month before the elections due to defections and resignations by the legislators. However the DAN was able to beat all odds and also proved many analysts wrong. The NPF party alone secured 26 seats along with two each from the BJP and NCP and with the support of some independent candidates it formed the government. It did not need the support of the National parties like it needed now. However, the days when the NPF and its DAN partnership were strong are long gone. The infighting within the NPF party leading to the opening of doors for new entrants from other parties has proved costly. On the other hand the recent loses in other states by the other once prominent national party, the Indian National Congress, has made it the second or third choice only, by intending candidates. Else, at one point of time, during the heydays of the Congress party in Nagaland, a party ticket during elections was almost synonymous to a Congress party ticket. It had made inroads into the state although with much opposition from the Naga conservatives during the seventies and even ruled the state for more than three full terms. The coming back of the regional parties into power was equated by many as the bringing back of Naga pride. Nevertheless, along with the pride that the Nagas have on its home-grown regional parties the political dynamics at present forces all to have some kind of alliance with the national parties. Moreover, for a state like Nagaland that does not generate enough revenue, a friendly government at the Centre is always an advantage. It just became more pronounced this time because at the Centre the BJP was never as powerful as now and in the state the regional parties were never so weak with the tussle among the leaderships. Nevertheless, the BJP or any other national party need to be cautious that any move that is perceived as a threat to the Naga identity- customs and beliefs, the electorates tends to suddenly become restive and unpredictable. Nagaland also has its own share of the Naga right-wing as evident from the protests against the urban local body elections in 2017.