Increasing population, need of more space for habitation, heavy pollution along with continuous de-forestation in the state of Nagaland is not only leading to heavy atmospheric carbon emission but also taking the region towards heavy impact of climate change and unknown diseases. An intensive scientific study by India’s North East Climate Change Adaptation Programme (NECCAP) in 2012 confirmed that the region is suffering from the impact of climate change and its impact on people, fields and livestock is devastating and set to get worse. Due to its unique location and topography, the study found that the region has distinct precipitation and drainage patterns.
The climate change projection for Nagaland indicates that between 2021 and 2050, it will experience an increase in annual average temperature between 1.6°C and 1.8°C. Southern districts (Kohima, Wokha, Phek, Zunheboto and Tuensang) show higher increase in temperature rising between 1.7°C and 1.8°C. The Northern districts like Mon and Mokokchung are projected to have an increase in average temperature of between 1.6°C and 1.7°C.
Precipitation is likely to increase overall by 10-20 % with 2 or more than 2 days of extreme rainfall conditions (100 mm/day) in areas like Phek, Tuensang, and Kohimaper year. Further it is expected that the climate change, along with socio-economic factors, is likely to have an impact on health and give rise to new diseases in the state. This is further discussed under the following points.
1. Extreme temperature and health
As per statistical distribution of weather pattern, January should be colder than December however under the influence of climate change, the temperature pattern has seen shifts with December reeling with minimum temperature while January month which is expected to be colder, have become warmer. In December 2014,the minimum temperature hovered around 5-6°C in Dimapur, then it suddenly shot up to a minimum of 8-10°C in January 2015.
The population is tolerant to temperature range between 27° - 30°C, however, as the average maximum temperature in Nagaland is likely to increase by 1.6 - 1.8°C in 2030s, if temperature beyond the tolerance level of the population persists for a few days, it may make the population experience heat stress conditions and hence morbidity/mortality.With increase in temperature, there might be increase in dehydration amongst population, and spurt in skin diseases such as acne, cellulitis, furunculosis etc especially in the southern districts.
2. Droughts and floods
The drought weeks across Nagaland are likely to increase by 25-50 % in 2021-2050s. The projections also indicate higher flood discharge in the southern districts of Phek and Kohima, an increase of 10 - 25 % more flood discharge is likely to take place with respect to current discharge rates in these districts.
3. Climate sensitive diseases
The acute respiratory diseases in Nagaland have increased almost three times from 2008 to 2010. Due to pollution, the Respirable Suspended Particulate Matter (RSPM) is increasing along with Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) and has increased to more than the allowed national standards of 60µg/m3 and 140µg/m3 respectively in Dimapur.
In spite of these challenges, several initiatives have been undertaken and are underway in Nagaland that is fostering climate friendly development. Some of these include exemplary measures taken by the Government and the NGOs.
The National Action plan for Climate Change (NAPCC) and the eight Missions in specific areas of solar energy, enhanced energy efficiency, sustainable habitat, water, sustaining Himalayan ecosystems, Green India, sustainable agriculture and strategic knowledge for climate change was formulated in June 2008. This has provided an opportunity for the state to up-scale its adaptation efforts. The Nagaland Action Plan for Climate Change has been prepared by the State Government through a consultative process involving 25 departments, senior officers and the GIZ. (Gesellschaftfür Internationale Zusammenarbeit)
The NBCC (Nagaland Baptist Church Council) which is perhaps the widest broad base organisation, has also sounded strongly on climate change concerns and biodiversity conservation. The most recent one being the Platinum Jubilee celebration in Kohima from 19th to 21stApril 2012, reproduced below.
“Resolution III on environment reaffirm the Rotomi Resolution No. 8 of February 2011 that:
1. Baptist churches will initiate climate change adaptation strategies and other eco-biological friendly actions, sensitise on conservation of forest and preservation of wild life, and work closely with the community leaders and concerned Departments for addressing the environment alarm.
2. Abstain from using jungle meat during NBCC and churches gatherings.
3. Discourage churches from offering wild animals during its Thanksgiving Service.”
Climate change no longer remains a distant theoretical possibility or an academic rhetoric; but is an unconcealed reality. Addressing climate change calls for actions at local, national and global levels. It comes as no surprise that the impact of global warming has drawn concerns from the Vatican as Pope Francis published an encyclical called ‘Laudatosi’, subtitled ‘On Care For Our Common Hope’ intended to influence the COP21 conference. In it, the Pope calls all people of the world to take “swift and unified global action” against environmental degradation and global warming. During1st week of December 2015, 195 countries participated in The United Nations Climate Change Conference or COP21 at Paris, where they agreed, by consensus to reduce their carbon output and limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C
Nagaland being situated in the North East Hills forms an extended part of the Eastern Himalayas which makes it most vulnerable to climate-mediated risks. The economy as a whole is characterized by low level of development with high dependence of livelihoods on natural resources - water, forest, agriculture etc. People living in rural areas and those dependent on nature for their livelihood face the biggest challenges of all. With the metamorphosis of the way things were, traditional knowledge is now faced with the challenge of adjusting to a new living of understanding and reworking these relationships and incorporating the new vocabulary and language of climate change into their own practice. While the majority of available research focuses on the adverse impacts of climate change, it overlooks the adaptation mechanisms by the local people. The enormous challenge for the region is to adapt to the impacts of climate change by integrating responses and adaptation measures into local level poverty reduction strategies
We can’t stop climate change, but we can identify the probable changes with which we would have to adapt. It is important to adapt livelihood patterns in such a way that the common man is not taken for a shock when the effects of climate change are being felt by the people. Though we may not be able to stop climate change, we can always be prepared for it, increase capabilities of the people to know these effects and how to cope with them.
Reference:
1. Nagaland State Action Plan on Climate Change version 2012.2, Achieving a low Carbon Development Trajectory, Gov. Of Nagaland pg. 19, 25,26,117
2. Morung Express news. January 9th 2016
3. http://www.c2es.org/international/key-country-policies/india/climate-plan-summary
Anguvika Inakhe Yepthomi
Zunheboto
