Historic Peace Accord between GoI and NSCN(IM): A mathematical perspective

Evolution and Etymology:
Each individual human being is born into a particular ethnicity by fate.The writer is born a Naga, from Chakhesang tribe (formerly Eastern Angami) belonging to Chokricluster and Tetseo clannot by choice but by destiny.Despite the confusion about the origin and the etymology of the word “Naga” amongst scholars, ethnologists and anthropologists. The fairest equation is propoundedby R.R.Shimray in his “Origin and Culture of the Nagas” 1985, that it was derived from the Burmese word ‘Na Ka’ meaning pierced ears. He also quote a Thia tradition from Chiang Mai of Thailand that a group of people with pierced ears migrated to Burma and they were known as “Nakari”. The British came to know of these people and anglicized their name into Naga.Interpolation:
Likewise, many existing tribes were christened by the British. Nagas are divided into 65 tribes as listed by S.R. Tohring (2010) within India and Myanmar (formerly Burma).According to Naga National Council(NNC), there are 77 tribes, which includes the sub-tribe and major tribes. Further, each tribe consists of several clans and sub-clans. These clans are superimposed across the tribes as in matrix multiplication.E.G: The outcome of the law of total probability is in the event that Tetseo clan (Chakhesang) =Yepthomi clan (Sumi) =Soukhrie clan (Angami) =Shimray clan (Tangkhul) =Aier clan (Ao) =Kikon clan (Lotha) and so forth. To proof the Set of A = {Tetseo, Yepthomi, Soukhrie, Muivah, Aier, Kikon} sampling of the population may well be done by DNA profiling.The kinship amongst the Nagas are closely knitted like the football is stitched without the thread being seen.
In partial differentiation, the ferocious Kukis have largely assimilated with the violent Nagas. They are now recognized as one of the Naga tribe in Nagaland akin with the peacefulParsi community who migrated from Persia (formerly Iran) to Gandhiji’snonviolent Gujarat and are embraced as Gujaratis. The probability theory of Meiteis as an offshoot of the Naga tribe is relatively very high as rendered by the British. The standard deviation (sigma σ) from the mean drew with the conversion of Meities into Hinduism post 1700 AD. The set of {Meiteis} (unionʊ) {Hindu} = {Success} is yet to be seen initstotality. Nagas need not be regressive and live in the past, the Pan Naga Agenda have to encompass the Kukis and Meiteis as well, who also share the same descent.It is an irony but Centre’s Interlocutor R.N. Ravi and National Security Adviser AjitDovalequipped with theArchive andprofiles drawn from its agencies IB/RAW/Military Intelligencecangrasp how to jiggle and fit the jigsaw puzzle.
The 16 point Agreement of July, 1960 between Govt. of India and the Naga People’s Convention and Shillong Accord signed on 11 November 1975 between Govt. of India and representatives of the underground government were both a fallacy.There is no need of explanation to show the fallacy of theintent viz., GOI minus (-) Guerilla plus (+) NGOs/Substitutesdivided by (÷) Nagas = Solution.It was like a football match which began with the kick off between GOI versus NNC, touched down in penaltyshootout between the GOI versus Substitute players instead of the protagonist.The plane that took off was amid hijacked by both the GOI and the NGOs (substitutes) to a different destination.Negotiations for the present framework remain closed to the public and the text of the agreement remains classified. Identical with the recent Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Free Trade Agreement reached between the Obama administration and the leaders of 11 other Pacific Rim nations on 5th Oct, 2015.
Extrapolation:
As stated, the writer belongs to the Chakhesang tribe without any kind of affinity toneither NNC nor NSCN.Similarly, majority of the civil society does not share any affiliation to either NNC3or NSCN3. The Naga civil society holds each guerilla as the son of the soil regardless of the faction one belongs. And also decries each antithesis of a guerilla who arebane anti-social elements. Every Naga desires all the factions to work in unison and echoes the clarion call of “One Dream, One Voice, One Future”, by Neiphiu Rio, the lone Lok Sabha M.P. from Nagalandat the Consultative Meeting of 25th Aug, 2015. Even so, the intersection of the two sets arefoundin the element NNC Ո NSCN = {NNC}. Isak Swu, Thuingaleng Muivah and S.S. Khaplang, the NSCN Supremos were all once NNCpeers. But the Nagas cannot regress and dwell in the past glories of the NNC.Besides, both the sets (A) NNC and (B) NSCN then and now have undergone arduous metamorphosis. The support base for both sets (A) NNC and (B) NSCN and their splinter factions are no longeraccording tothe tribalaffiliation. As attributed by Amitava Mukherjee in hisbazaar formulae: “Key to resolving Naga imbroglio lies in its simplicity”, published in Eastern Mirror dated 29th Sept, 2015 which rests invalidated.
Looking through the lens of GOI, the Net Present Value of NSCN(IM) is greater than (>) NSCN(K) or NNC and any of the splinter factions.It is an established fact that tactically, strategically, militarily or organizationally the NSCN(IM) edges out. The red card shown to the NSCN(K) imperatively must have a multifacetednuance. The roaring crowds have booed the MHA over it.Perhaps, GOI and NSCN(IM) is match fixing in anticipation of the fixtures then topitch in the other teams. Applying the Pythagorean equation: a2 + b2 = c2 or NNC2 + NSCN2 = Guerilla2. Whatever the plot behind the blueprint, it should not be tainted by narrow tribal shades. If the vertical line ‘Y’ axis is equal to = Tribes, then the horizontal line ‘X’ axis is equal to = Clans. Each Clan is superimposed across Tribes and artificialborders. Hence, without consideration of the primary ordered pair(Tribe, Clan) and using the Cartesian coordinates, the complete graph cannot be drawn with only ‘Y’ coordinate. The auxiliary ordered pairs, 3 dimensional or 4 dimensional Cartesian coordinates includes (Church, FNR), (Tribal Hohos, NGOs, Civil Society) and (NNC factions, NSCN factions, JLF, Neighboring States).Conversely, history should not beendorsed torepeat itself in the current historic football match between GOI versus NSCN(IM).The outcome of the goal scores or whether the reserved players will be pitched in or not remains to be seen. All the Cartesiancoordinates in sync with the roaring crowds are already engaged in applauding and booing each move of the attacker and the opponent.As spectators, let’s exhibit sportsmanship wherever one is seated east, west, north or south of the arena and do not interfere with the match in progress. There are no rules in the game to swap spectators and players. Allow the players to dribble,tackle and marvel at their fitness, speed, skills, urging them to intercept every jockeying for the ball, ready to explode at a powerful shot GOL, GOL, GOL!Are the Nagas ready to cheer the players to victory?
While the British suzerainty over the 562 Indian princely states ended when India got independence in 1947.The British bequeathed the Indian nation with political unrests in Kashmir, and the Naga Hills. It is a universal fact that every freedom struggle be it in India or any other nation in the global community, the support of the mass or the broad base civil society isa prerequisite. The then, NNC had the mandate of the 99.9% Naga people in the plebiscite of May 16, 1951. Resulting with the voluntary patronage in cash and kind from every household. However, the NNC had virtually collapsed alongside the dissenting raison d’être within the leadershipclout on the modus operandifor achieving sovereignty. The present scenario is an estranged Naga civil society crying foul over the extorted taxation by every tom, dick and harry.Legitimacy is widely recognized as necessary for the resilience and success of revolutionary groups, yet successful revolutionary groups are frequently viewed as illegitimate during the course of conflicts. This paradox was researched by Eric W. Schoon, showing how multiple shifting sources of legitimacy allowed the PKK to be perceived as illegitimate by various audiences without compromising their capacity for resilience and success as they retained support within a broadly legitimated movement for Kurdish rights in Turkey.
Conclusion:
NarendraDamodardas Modi, once an underground himself in Gujarat when the RSSwas banned during June of 1975 by Indira Gandhi occurs to be the right man who understands the language of struggle.The same Prime Minister Modi broke down while talking about his mother at Facebook Townhall Session with CEO Mark Zuckerberg in Menlo Park, California.Baring the strength and epitome of a true leader, flexible and adaptable. The bold proclamation of the Naga Peace Accord at Dubai’s cricket stadiumnow bearsatestimony to the globaleyewitness.A trial by fire awaits, to see whether the declarationfades away as a mere rhetoric or culminatesintoanaccomplishment. The most active politically unrests and naturally disastrousregionscoincidentally are N.E. India, N.E. Afghanistan, N.E. Iraq, N.E. Yemen, N.E. Syria, N.E. Pakistan, N.E. Nigeria, N.E.Africaand N.E. Japan, N.E. Nepal, N.E. Taiwan, N.E. Philippines, N.E. Indonesia, N.E. Argentina, N.E. Costa Rica et al.Statistical inference with datasets drawn from North East Region of the global nations displays a scatter plot of positive correlation. In this backdrop let us conclude by assessing the probability of a successful Peace Accord signed between GOI and NSCN(IM)on 3rd Aug, 2015.
To find out the probability of the success of the Peace Accord between the GOI and NSCN(IM), let us apply Bayes’ Theorem:
P(A/B)=(P(A)P(B\A))/(P(B))
Based on general prevalence on the success of Peace Accord, suppose it is 14.28% base rate of prior probability.E.g. Mizoram, 1 out of 7 States; Nagaland, Punjab,Manipur, Assam,Kashmir and Tripura viz.,7÷1=0.1428=14.28%.
Next, the weighted average years ofstruggle in regard to India’s 7 states is = 52.51 years. If years of struggle and success are related, we can assess the chance of success.
Suppose, the probability that every struggle in the world is 52.51 yearsarrives to 0.02% (by permutation and combination).
And also assume that the probability ofsuccesswith 52.51 years of struggle is 0.07% (by permutation and combination).
With the given information, along with the base rate, we can calculate the probability of success of the Peace Accord after the struggle for 89 years (Simon Commission 1929, till 2015) equals to: (0.07% ÷ 0.02%) × 14.28% = 0.4998 or 49.98%. Say, 50% (Fifty Percent) probability of successful Peace Accord.
Finally, the writer keenly hopes that the Naga people will make the right choice (NNC=Stack of hay or NSCN=Pail of water) at the right moment and not be subjected to the paradox of Buridan’s ass.
“It refers to a hypothetical situation wherein an ass that is equally hungry and thirsty is placed precisely midway between a stack of hay and a pail of water. Since the paradox assumes the ass will always go to whichever is closer, it will die of both hunger and thirst since it cannot make any rational decision to choose one over the other”.
Kuknalim!

V.T. Chakhesang
Nagaland, Kohima
Email:vt.chakhesang@gmail.com